How can this possibly be the making of another bull market??? The last bull market was built on the real estate bubble and people over leveraging themselves. Only way we create the next great bull market is with another bubble. Without leverage the economy isn't running anywhere fast. Another thing that confuses me is how quick everyone expects everything to turn around every single damn time we enter a slow period in our economy. It seems that the US economy can NEVER EVER go into any kind of recession, as soon as we see a dip in job growth, GDP or even consumer spending they try and do everything possible to make it as short as they can so that the economy doesn't suffer a setback. Having the US not go into the deep recession it was suppose to go into after the dot com bubble burst brought us to the stage of the greatest credit crisis in history. Everyone believes recessions are bad when in fact they are needed to create the cycle that is needed for growth moving forward. Throwing trillions of dollars at the economy with historical low interest rates is not the way to go about and fix a damaged economy. As we learned only years ago what low interest rates and great liquidity can do to a global economy in a short amount of time. This latest 40% run you witness today is just a bear market rally. There is no growth moving forward to drive the stock market to new highs, earnings have dropped significantly, job losses are still mounting, foreclosures have yet to peak, option arms are coming due and commercial real estate is still falling apart, aside from that threat of inflation is going to run wild through the markets as bernanke wont be quick enough to raise rates when need be. If everyone is calling for growth to return at the end of 2009 early 2010 how come the fed is still sitting on historical low interest rates???
Yea I was wondering what happened to all my offers, they have all dried up. I was getting about 2-4 a week. Lucky if I get 2 a month. hmmmmmm Now how are consumers suppose to go to the mall and buy things they want when they aren't getting the credit they once had. Not fair to those who don't have cash and want to buy clothes, ipods, 60" flat panel plasmas and new cars, how can they do it without a job and no VISA credit card. This is an outrage, how can we lift the GDP which 70% of it is based off of consumer spending if the average person cant even get a damn credit card with at least $7500 worth of credit on it.
Dont worry shortie, the dow is up over 10% in just 2 weeks, a short term pullback to 8500-8700 is in the works in my opinion, im still sticking with my prediction of 7 handles on both s&p and dow sometime over the next 4-6 months. Today on fox bulls and bears a few bulls were pointing out that the s$p is going to 1100 and some were calling for 10,000+ on the DOW by years end, eric boilling said oil was going back to (you guessed it) $100 big ones. Again anyone who believes the economy can sustain $100 oil in this recession is fooling themselves. With nearly 15 million out of work and more losing jobs everyday just the threat of energy prices rising into the end of 2009 is extremely worrisome to many.
"STRAIGHT" HMMMM? S&P Headed Straight for 1,250: Strategist Published: Friday, 24 Jul 2009 | 7:02 AM ET Text Size By: CNBC.com We are in a cyclical recovery that has further upside potential, Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors, said Friday. He said the S&P 500 index is heading towards the 1,200 to 1,250 level. "The markets have been able to break out to new highs for the year; the volumes have been reasonable; the number of stocks participating in the rally that we've seen over the last couple of weeks has been very high, in other words the breadth has been good, all is well," he told CNBC. The U.S. market is on its way up after breaking the neckline on the head-and-shoulders pattern ââ¬â a chart pattern where a reversal sees spikes higher, he said. The Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq all reached fresh 2009 closing highs Thursday, and are at their highest since November (Dow and S&P 500) or October (Nasdaq). "There's a lot of upside to go," Oliver predicted. "Yes, there's going to be setbacks along the way, but I think the broader trend will be up." "Fundamentally, I think the good news about this rally, which is different to the rallies we saw through last year, is that it has been backed up by a bit of economic data," he said. Existing home sales were up for the third month in a row in June, signaling a stabilization in the US housing market, he noted. "So far, 74 percent of the (U.S. earnings) results have come in better than expected," he said. He added he likes stocks, commodity currencies, investment grade corporate bonds over the next 6 to 12 months.
All depends on what you mean by a bull market. If SPX goes to 1150, bounces between 850 and 1150 for two years and hits the lows again in 2012, what do you call that?
now, this one is a real worry for my up bias! This guy is wrong 90% of the time. is it possible that we are on top of ear rally? Similar pattern in DOW to 2002 before new lows. Funny also distance travelled in bear rally matches. will tighten stops !
'03-'07... was an artificial, BS, money-pump bull market... excessive loose money supported by the RE market and artificially low interest rates from the Fed. '09... artificial & BS(?), money-pump bull market... excessive loose money supported by bailouts, stimulus, deficits, artificially low interest rates from the Fed and changing accounting standards so that toxic assets don't have to be counted. Market could go up much more and be more "straight up" than rational traders can now imagine.
thestreet.com poll shows the crowd is extremely bullish (assuming the poll was not filled in by bots). we should correct this coming week. i like monday crashes when bulls get a bucket of cold water right after a nice weekend full of $$ dreams. Total Votes: 3067 votes 1 What would best describe your stance heading into the coming week of trading? Bullish 52.0% 1595 votes Bearish 30.64% 940 votes Neutral 17.34% 532 votes http://www.thestreet.com/story/10553084/1/bull-or-bear-vote-in-our-poll.html
He actually said this: âEconomic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited." - George Soros