Is this fishy... or is it just me?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by bonds, Feb 14, 2012.

  1. bonds


    Ive noticed this tendency lately on notable down days there seems to be a lot of headlines coming out of Europe that reverses course of action in the US markets and injects this euphoric buying right into our close.

    This news always seems to be refuted or denied at some point well into the after hours where it doesnt have an effect into the market. The latest is today right near the close apparently there is a headline out of Greece that the PM will apparently is now ok with signing the austerity package. What seems somewhat suspicious to me is that at the time the news is released it was 11:00 PM in Greece. All these headlines out of Europe that give our markets a boost tend to come late in the evening in Europe, when I would think they should be coming during the day during European market hours.

    Does that seem fishy to anyone else or is it just me?
  2. onelots


    all major headlines are released at non-coincidental times. it's intended to be that way. bearish headlines are released after upmoves and bullish after downmoves. don't fight it. everything's rigged
  3. Whatever the headline, this is the real situation in Europe (of which all major market players are much more aware than us):

    Greece: deeply bankrupt
    Portugal: deeply bankrupt
    Spain: bankrupt
    Italy: almost bankrupt
    France: broke and running down the slope fast
    UK: broke and running down the slope fast
    Germany: self-solvent, but deteriorating fast
    Finland, Netherlands, Sweden: deteriorating

    How markets fabricate uptrends these days? On the news?

    They know that, if the markets even start a minor downturn, it's the end.
  4. bonds


    im not fighting it, just saying why would the Greek pm release this statement at 11:00 pm Greek time... i would expect European news to be released during their day, not ours.
  5. Maverick74


    The only thing fishy to me is how AAPL can just move up every day in a straight line. It's really hard to get follow through in the ES when AAPL keeps making new highs. I have never seen such a smooth move before in my life. If you take AAPL out of the S&P 500 we would probably be back at 1300.
  6. It was a severely underpriced stock. So it had to correct up. This is not unusual, I've seen similar moves in companies like IBM in the past. Express the AAPL move as a pct and its nothing extraordinary really after a boffo earnings report.

    This is something people trading indexes have to understand. The best blue chip companies have NEVER been healthier as corporations. If the indexes are to go lower, there has to be an even bigger negative catalyst. And when I see even Citibank posting an earnings beat, I don't know where any downside leadership can come from.
  7. Us Europeans, we're a fishy bunch...

    Young kids in Spain don't go to bed until 10 - 11pm ... so why are you so surprised if the Greek PM is making newsworthy press releases at 11 pm...

    "I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore..."
  8. bc1


    Even the cycler is in bed before this. Maybe I missed and its Pakistan, not Europe. Probably a paky.
  9. bc1


    Go Jayhawks!!!
  10. margins gs 2.jpg

    3. The percentage of firms beating consensus EPS expectations by more than one standard deviation (our definition of a positive surprise) is well below the historical average. The number of firms missing by more than one standard deviation is above the historical average. The ten year historical average of beat and misses equals 41% and 13%, respectively. So far this quarter just 24% of firms beat expectations and 17% have missed.

    4. On an aggregate basis, reported results represent a 3% upside EPS surprise for the quarter ($0.45 per share). However, estimates for firms yet to report fell by 2% resulting in 0.9% change to S&P 500 4Q EPS. The median surprise over the past ten years has been 1.6%.

    5. The Information Technology sector contributed nearly all of the S&P 500 upside EPS surprise ($0.43 of $0.45 total). Industrials and Financials contributed about 40% and 30%, respectively, or $0.18 and $0.14. Energy surprises have been negative, lowering the index aggregate by $0.26.

    6. Individual companies matter. AAPL represents 18% and 26% of the Information Technology sector’s market cap and expected 4Q 2011 earnings, respectively. The Information Technology sector should grow earnings by 21% year/year, but by just 5% excluding AAPL. Apple is likely to be the top contributor to S&P 500 EPS for this quarter. 4Q 2011 will represent the first time since 2003 that Exxon (XOM) is not the top S&P 500 EPS contributor.

    7. Since the start of earnings season, bottom-up consensus full-year 2012 estimates have declined by 0.5% to $106. Our top-down forecast remains $100. Revisions are largest in Materials (-3.5%), Energy (-2.5%), and Financials (-2.3%). Information Technology revisions have increased by 3% and Industrials revisions have been flat.

    Credit: Goldman Sachs
    #10     Feb 14, 2012