Money managers must be bullish in the long run - or else be out of a job. I can't really disagree with them, for in the "long run" the bad stocks are replaced with the good, so that the indices will always perform.
This is what I find funny about this market, today on fast money no wanted to touch this market and it seems everyone I heard on bloomberg was getting into cash or gold and staying as far away from equities, now what makes no sense is that when the market is going up day after day, week after week and quarter after quarter everyone is buying like stocks are just going to skyrocket, Look at AAPL, people paid over $400 a share, the stock is now at $350, CAT was above $115 today under $83, funny how people chase stocks higher but once they start to fall they think its time to go short, thats not the way it works. Im going long this market and I am a complete bear, I want to wait until the SPX breaks 1000 to start adding long positions because thats where the SPX is going, however I do think there is a substantial rally coming before the sub 1000 levels on the SPX get here.
"The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." At this point I bet the market is not trading on valuation, but emotion. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market right now and we`re not finished digesting what all this new information really means. I was initially positioned short just above 1300 and got stopped out on a tight stop at the top. Depression. When we traded down to 1200 I concluded I was too late to enter a swing trade for further downside and here we are another 100 points lower at 1100. I believe that right now anything can happen, which is why I would be terrified to try picking a bottom and just as uncertain about entering a new short from here. I`m sure that more than one account here on ET has blown up the last weeks trying to catch falling knives.
It's a bull trap! People are going to hear 6.66% on the news tonight and think, oh, since 2009 bottomed out at 666 we'll do it this time... Things never happen the same way twice.
I'd be willing to bet you've been going long each day for the past week. Just as you were more than likely going short many days the entire ride higher. The pundits advice always assumes a "funny money" unlimited bankroll. They supposedly go long all the time, never sell, and then put all of this phantom "cash" to work on every sell-off. The same formula has been at work for generations.
The market, in its current price, has already discounted a more than 50% chance of double dip. Within two months, someone will anounce the 2nd recession in two years is already two months old.