Is this a November type rally or what?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by sdb5057, Apr 3, 2009.

  1. sdb5057


    I am looking at the charts, the moves look almost exactly like what happened in November....

    Am I paranoid to think that this rally isn't real?
  2. S2007S


    Its real, however the upside is limited, your not going to see any new highs anytime soon, if you were in on the long side and rode it up the 20%+ I would be selling, I do see more upside, however the visit to a 7 handle on both the DJIA and S&P will come again. The next to drop is Commercial real estate and credit card deliquencies. Commercial real estate is still in the beginning stages of falling apart, millions of square feet of commercial real estate is on the market and alot more is coming as more companies fall under due to the slowing economy. Dont believe the hype about all the talking heads saying a bottom is near, the bottom is far from here.
  3. sdb5057


    Well that is what I was thinking... I mean, I haven't seen too many people that made me think anything but negativity towards the economy. The rioting isn't helping either...
  4. The biggest 4-week rally in over 75 years is no joke. If you've been short during this rally, it has been EXTREMELY painful.

    Don't listen to all of the negativity on the TV about the fundamentals of the Economy . . . that is purely a distraction and "side-show".

    Look at your charts and trade technically.

  5. Agreed.

    Check out the WEEKLY CHART of June EMini S&P Future. We could see good support near 801.50 & the chart is still constructive. If looking to buy, 801 area might be sweet.

    I agree the upside is limited @ this point. I've been selling YM and &ES for over a year now & it's hard to put on another hat. In retrospect, 700 would've been a good buy but I won't chase it up here.

    842, 850, 869 all have the potential of being a medium term top. My belief is that once this thing DOES reverse it will give up half of its gains from the low (662 on June future).

    The author of this thread compared this rally to Nov. rally.

    Well, let's look at Nov. rally: 739---->943

    That's 204 points.

    On the June future (ES-M9) the low was 662.75....204 points higher would take us to 867 area.

    870 is a sweet resistance onfrom 1-14, 1-28 and 2-9.

    Who knows? It could be our final stop.

    I'm sure much of the Peanut Gallery here on ET will be buying @ those levels, not selling.

    Have a nice weekend, all! I know I will. :p
  6. bl33p


  7. Benny





    THE FED took 1 trillion and handed it to GOV and banks to PUMP INTO market and economy

    for christ sake this was all over the news
  8. d08


    My system has been short and it has been by far the worst two weeks of all time for me. A complete nightmare.

    I disagree about the fundamentals being a sideshow, you can't ignore the employment numbers forever - I expect the earnings season to have some really bad news and it will also effect prices simply because of the added positive expectancy lately...there definitely is downside now which wasn't present at the beginning of last month.
  9. Yes, the higher it goes the riskier it becomes. A reversal is in the cards imho. Perhaps by first of May. Just a guess.

  10. Venture a guess how far it will run before running out of gas.

    Any possibility of it getting to January resistance at 943.85?
    #10     Apr 4, 2009