If I am not mistaken, the only way it works out better than simply taking profit is if it expires worthless right around the strike. So you want to be exposed for a full day for that, OK, up to you.
This is a rather bad trade even though you are profitable. Your trade plan is very wishy washy / unclear. You are fickle-minded. your mind is not centered. you failed to trade on your own. you are influenced / distracted by outside forces. Do note that life trading is 90% mind, and 10% technical/method.
no, it works out the same or better if market ends between 12975 and 13687.50. Above and below it ends worse. Correcting last post there is a 85% chance at some point index will be 0.33% lower and a 75% chance it will be down 1% at some point tomorrow (during regular trading hours).
I vaguely recall fighting with you previously, so I don’t see a point in continuing arguing with you or responding to you.
you were asking for members' opinions. I have expressed my opinion, not an argument. You can choose to accept, ignore or discard my opinion.
Max gave you good analysis. He saw the same thing I did. Pay attention. Good trading is zero (reaction to) emotion
I like your straightforward trade-note system. No muss no fuss no screen realestate required. sold mnq - 100 pt target, whats your entry fill price? Best part of trading is it resolves into an outcome. Your overall nq trade there looks like you have a large sweet spot...
Good trading is about always thinking about new ideas and talking it out since one can't argue with oneself. Up to now, never traded futures with options, saw something i liked and wanted another opinion. This is how you learn. I don't need to be taught trading, I have more than 25 years of mostly successful experience. Just wanted to hear pros and cons of trade to balance thought process. I simply thought of a trading plan to maximize profitability while limiting risk if possible. I try to balance the use of logic, technical analysis and statistics in my trading. Hence I write many trading formulas and always try to improve/improvise.
In picture post first line is sell 2 MNQ @ 13600. I wrote it down because as I was waiting for market to trend lower to 13500 - my initial target-, I saw option chain and started thinking. I wrote down to visualize how the options would change the profitability. If market would've dropped to 13500 before 9am instead of struggling to go lower there, probably would've closed position at 13500. However that time allowed to check other ideas which was selling options. The reason I decided to sell 3 puts instead of 2 or 4 was because I was leaning more towards a decline than a rise but this also gave me decent upside cushion in case I was wrong. The market dropping to a level below 13000 seemed statistically unlikely unless the war took a sharp turn with chemical use. My statistical analysis yielded good odds that market would be down at least 100 points at some point tomorrow during the day (however, as of this writing NQ is down 100 points in the overnight session).