Is this a good idea for options??

Discussion in 'Options' started by lasner, Jan 11, 2010.

  1. rew

    rew

    Well, in another global market panic people will dump stocks for short term treasuries and gold. This could push up the prices of both gold and the dollar. My guess is that your trade will work but it's not a sure thing.
     
    #21     Jan 13, 2010
  2. For example, the GLD is currently trading at 111.54 and the FXE is trading at 144.8301. You believe that gold will rise faster and farther than the dollar will weaken. I suggested a hedge. You could buy 200 sh of GLD and sell 100 sh of FXE. If both gold and the dollar go up, you make money. If gold goes up and the dollar weakens (your premise), you still make money, but not as much as if you were highly leveraged as you previously suggested). The only time you lose money is if gold drops and the dollar weakens--which is the least likely scenario. You gotta have a mental stop loss and you have to have a price target, as with any trade. You can rebalance your ratios as your opinion of the trade changes--just don't forget to take a profit. You can always jump back in. You can do the same thing with options. You can buy 2 ATM/ITM call options for GLD (with at least three months til expiration), and 1 ATM/ITM put option for FXE--with same expiration date as the GLD options. There are other options to achieve this spread. The problem using the options is time decay; you could be right and still not profit. At least with the stock time doesn't matter.
     
    #22     Jan 13, 2010