This year, and every year, just depends on your strategy and experience IMHO and don't discount the "luck factor." I'm having my best year since '00, and except for a few option writes, I've only traded stocks from the long side this year. Good trading to all. C
I don't see how this is a bad market to trade unless you're looking at the same few stocks and your not willing to go short. I thing too many traders are still stuck with a long mentality.
chaod this is your best year since 2000? my lord were were you from 2001-2003 were the vix was mostly over 25 and many times in the 30's and 40's. i was making huge money on the countless futures down 20-30 days all trading long. ti was like shooting fish in abarrell for guys who love movement
I think it is difficult in that there have been numerous failures to follow through the next day after strong closes. Also, there have been very few days where you get those enormous trend days like we used to. When was the last time the futures hit the intraday limit lock? I can't remember the last time, but a few years ago we got them every week or so. There have been plenty of opportunities for daytraders, if you were watching the right stocks. But in general, it seems to me it has been a market that has a lot of risk but doesn't really give you the big reward.
no doubt and the same could be said for shorting weakness. we've clsoed down big at least 2 or 3 times in the last weeks and every time the next morning we gapped up and closed higher. so shorts shorting the weak close going out at the lows have been hammered too. the only way to make money is fine a very short term daily trend and stick with it and not be shaken out and closing that position at days end as the next day the trned is reversed almsot every time. like today we went out at the lows so if the pattern of weeks past holds again we gap up alittle on the open and close higher. but jsut when idnetify the pattern of the past things change again. the life of a trader
Hi Sammy, I think you have it right - this is essentially what I've been doing lately. Cutting down my size while trying to let the moves work themselves out over a day or two. Nutzo, This market isn't exactly directional IMO so I could understand how one would probably think that it would be easier to trade in a more directional market (Sept. - Dec. last year comes to mind) and rightly so. Currently you need to have some intuition about the people you're playing against. The retail money isn't really there to add that extra ummphh to the moves so we are "swimming with sharks" IMO - I am by no means even a guppy in this pond but sharks will eat anything they can whenever they can. Mike Anyway, it is always been my attitude that learning should never be easy. The best lessons often take the most effort and prove most difficult to learn
Exatcly. Isn't that the whole point? There is no big reward in battling it out in a tough environment. The big kahuna is when the retail money hits. How can anyone say that it's not a tough equity market? Weak stocks start squeezing when futures dive and strong stocks start diving during futures rips. No retail money there, just day traders, specialists, MMs and hedge funds trying to psych each other out. Noone to pass the bag to, hence the game is just one big battle between sharks & pirahnas. Just take a look at the futures whipsaw. Today (thurs) was different, there were institutions behind the moves, even if it was hedge funds. I'm fine with days like this, but this is a good day comparing to the past month & a half. Nothing like 2003 though.
i trade mostly listed stocks and this market has been really rough on me for the last few months. i am already down 25k this month, i get caught too often with size on the wrong side of the trade and not being able to bail out without getting hurt too badly as before. seems like the players are getting much better and the retails have taken an early vacation.