He is a non-factor. Has he ever been even slightly BEARISH for a day in his entire life? I think not.
Cause you need to read the many many footnotes and amendments in CPI & PPI calculations. As a contrast, you can also start keeping a tab on prices in ur local deli. If you happen to like Ben & Jerry's, you'll notice that the pint has went up in price right along with milk & sugar futures.
Yes, a 2 year view of the SPX shows elongated bottoms in APR, OCT 2005 whereas the recent JUN, JUL V-bottoms along with sharp rallies have a bearish footprint. My only concern is how to play this 'transitionary' environment. I was crunching out a variety of double diags, calendar, and B-fly spreads which are range plays but I just had a bad feeling about the speed of this week's rally, coupled with the potential for a sudden slide. I kept my backmonth VIX options (Sept, Nov, Feb) as I suspect the fall will come quick and with little notice. I'm planning to go long ES if there is a consolidation/pullback and any resumption towards the long direction. This will place me in an ES/VIX hedge. I wouldn't be surprised to see a quick run-up to 1320-1330 and a major spill on a negative catalyst. I'm not trying to be the great predictor, just heeding the flashing lights. Your thoughts?