Is There Such a Thing as a CONSISTENTLY Profitable Trading System?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by catmango, May 27, 2003.

  1. You saying Weinstein didnt scale up?
     
    #61     May 28, 2003
  2. No that is not what I am saying.

    All games have a maximum market share; and that ceiling is the real problem with systems like that.

    How big can you trade ...
     
    #62     May 28, 2003
  3. MR.NBBO

    MR.NBBO

    Metooxx is correct, most good trading systems are terminal when size comes into play.

    I'm quickly aproaching terminal mass with my system, the maximum size that it can contain is somewhere near $10mm in orders....after that I believe % returns will fall off drastically. (But at that point does it matter????)

    Metooxx, I've thought about heading for the islands-- where your based, but wanted to know how the hurricane season is.
    PS---Thanks for a little support, traders here seem hostile to a profitable system.
     
    #63     May 28, 2003
  4. That last line would probably be better rephrased as: "skeptical about traders who hardly ever have a losing day"....
     
    #64     May 28, 2003
  5. MR.NBBO

    MR.NBBO

    Candletrader....that statement works as well.
    You can be skeptical, I don't mind.....but don't be openly hostile.

    A good system over years is indeed a rare thing so skepticism and questions are fine. Explore, but don't discount them, even though the chance of occurrence is probably less than 1% IMO--so I understand where you are coming from.

    There are far more intellegent traders than I, yet I got a bit of luck in finding this area & have been running with it ever since.
     
    #65     May 28, 2003
  6. Guess we're going to see you in the next edition of Market Wizard.

    Congrats, Mr. Nibbo.
     
    #66     May 28, 2003
  7. Hurricanes are treated like snow storms in Chicago; don't worry about it. Worse case our house would take a bad hit in a Cat 5, we are on the ocean; however our office which is in the middle of the island wouldn't be touched.

    Or, a 8 seat jet will pick you and yours up for about $12K in a couple of hours and whisk you to Chicago.

    If you are making serious money you should be offshore ...
     
    #67     May 28, 2003
  8. DT-waw

    DT-waw

    Mr NBBO
    1) Is it directional or pairs trading?
    2) How do you track 40 stocks at a time?
    3) Do you automate your trades?
    4) You don't hold overnight?
    5) Is it true: your success can't be achieved without low IB's commissions?
    6) Do you trade NYSE or NQ? High-volume or low-vol stocks?

    On intraday basis, I think trends/noise ratio is too small to overcome slippage and comm. costs...

    thanks in advance
     
    #68     May 28, 2003
  9. MR.NBBO

    MR.NBBO

    Good questions, but it I answered fully....I'd be out of business, but here's a taste:

    1)I often arbitradge pairs that have a 95% or better correlation.
    2)Track 175 at a time...but trade 40-125. Use IB & esignal + MANY monitors.
    3)Trades are all manual
    4)Use to never holder over....but can't turn the titanic in a day anymore. Will hold over, but must be very close to zero after considering correlation & short/long. IE: Will be at least hedged.
    5)The lynch pin: commissions. Any place but IB would reduce my profits by 25-35%---a nasty bite.
    6) Won't say where I trade
    :D

    Hope some of it might help
     
    #69     May 28, 2003
  10. NBBO,

    Many tiny gains add up to a handsome sum :) ... what % cut of your gains do commissions eat up on average? We are talking very small discrete gains here, so commissions can be a real killer... And as for discretion, are you not ever tempted to take off a leg of a given pair, if price action so dictates? In practical terms, can u do so, with so many little bits of profit to monitor and manage? Do your fingers hurt and does your head buzz with exhaustion at the end of the trading day?

    I think I will content myself with the larger drawdown, larger average gain (per discrete trade), primarily directional route...

    Anyways, hats off to you for clarifying what you do...

    Candle
     
    #70     May 28, 2003