At the moment if I want to open a credit spread on AAPL by selling a Put at 155 and buying at 150 that has about a 28% chance of being in the money. So this will be VALUE if the credit I will obtain is greater than $5 x 0.28 = $1.40. If I get less than that it will be poor VALUE. At the time of writing I'd actually get 91 cents, which is crap. Now, I can do this manually for all the permutations but obviously if there's some software out there that can do it automatically and let me know when there is VALUE in a trade I define in a group of stocks that would be great. Is there any out there ? Any help would be appreciated.
Thanks. I downloaded OV on a trial yesterday and I'm working my way through their User Manual at the moment. There is a possibility it may be able to do it but I need to get to grips with their coding language
It's a shame - The platform at oX would do it and Schwab took theoX trade and probability tool into their Street Smaet and Mobil platform. They also carried forward the o X IdeaHub which does it for a number of preconfigured ICs
This will do anything you can input, for free. https://www.libreoffice.org/ With a little fiddling, you can get something like this: Being able to offload platform data is step #1. Secondarily -- a caution: the probability you cite is in reference to a specific moment in time: expiration. But you hold the option for the entire period from (your) sale through that moment. Are you vowing to hold it for that period? No matter what? What would make you seek to buy that spread back? The basic idea? The probability that the received premium ends up in your pocket is not the probability of the short being at-or-in-the-money at expiration. Uh-ohhhhhh.