Is there an edge here?

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Handle123 is right;
because 10,000 days, for example gets a bull + bear cycle, usually.
So no/ dont have to do 10,000 tests every week \once we got it.
Factor in stuff like SEPT sells......................;
+ most OCTobers are bear killers/uptrends.[SPY,spxl.....]
WATCH out for stuff like average SEPT sells pattern , but plenty of SEPTembers are buy months, even though average is a sell/LOL.
AND one year i remember SPXL did 100%; next year not so much@ all,oops!! Real common apple tree+ market pattern = one year super yield,2nd year, not much. 3rd year =super harvest again.ES is a lot like SPXL/UPRO, except dividends.....

 

Hello hilmy83,

Great work sir.

Increase your sample trade size to +200 to 500 trades to determine better edge.

 

thanks. where in texas?

i'll come back to this thread in 2-3 months and revisit this discussion to see if the edge is real or fluke

 

There should be more price outcomes than 5. And in fact there would be infinite number of outcomes.

 

I would not care which pattern appears most as a standalone but which pattern is likely to occur on a strong trend, a trading range and so on. Support and resistance fail or hold for a reason. Build on that instead of them failing. You also missed the holding S/R level where price only almost touches resistance before reversing.

 

To some extent, I agree with you that there should be much more.

 

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TRUE;
but if all i look@ is one trade vehicle, with no dividends most maybe bad...................................................................
I never belieVed in the free lunch, even though MOM made me some as a kid/LOL, But we had to work a round the home, so even that is debatable.,
Its also either a profit or loss;
but as they say/ diversification is the only free lunch\ on Wall Street[figure of speech\but helpful, mostly.]

 

Not sure how much your work around the house as a kid worths when your mom still had to pick up after you and rework some of the work you've done. LOL So you pretty much got a free lunch.

 

you telling me you wouldn't touch this strategy? i want to make sure you're not blowing smoke with that post or are you being serious?

 

No, would not touch it. You only had a profit factor of 2.2 and a max drawdown of 24% (!). Long BTC outright had more sharpe than your strategy (2.8)