Is there a way to foresee a slow/choppy session?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by heavenskrow, Jan 14, 2019.

  1. I do great with fast moving markets, but I get chopped to pieces in choppy markets.

    This chart is the Nasdaq inversed.White line was where I was eyeing entry to short after it made a lower low on open spike- which again due to the chart being inverted was a higher high.


    1min ..if I zoomed in closely I thought I saw other traders agreeing with me, and also holding that key level initially .

    So it was technically 30 minutes of chop before it broke the key level decisively and showed that I was on the wrong side. In a fast moving market, and expected volatility spike coming sometime soon again....I want to see if there is a way to know in advance if it will be a fast moving market or a slow moving session.

    I hope to be able to control and limit myself in situations where I exceed .....and slow choppy markets are not good for me.
    Thanks in advance
    murray t turtle likes this.
  2. %%
    Some what, so yes.
    5 minute tends to be nothing but chop.BUT when SEPT starts chopping, tends to go down;JAN chop with a strong ETFs tends to go up.And SO no; you cant ''know/predict'' NOT all sake oil salesmen the word predict; some just dont ever consult an old Merriam Webster dictionary.
    Good question. Intraday, 2 day, SDOW looks like chop; 200 days/200dma, looks like an uptrend, which means DOW is downtrending. NOT that JAN is /has been the big bear month for DOW.:D:D Jan could be a big bear month for DOW ,LOL
  3. tommcginnis


    Ye olde A.T.R.

    There will be ATRs you will not wish to be trapped in. There will be ATRs that demand you stay in (the) harbor...

    And they will be displayed, per market, per time period, via ATRs.
  4. Handle123


    Looking on Dailies, wide ranging bars, if first 60 minutes today does not break yesterdays range, might be inside day.
    murray t turtle likes this.
  5. %%
    [1st]That first pattern is what some a ''flag'' A non sideways trend; LOL 20-38mph
    Heavens krow;
    [2nd]If you have a Hi% hit rate-stop trading with your first or [2nd] loss= almost always a trend change.[uptrend or downtrend , or sideways slop chop trend/barbed wire range]
    [3rd]Average hit rate, just trade thru it or collect dividends.Slightly more risky ,can grind down an account being an action addict.
    [4th]Usually a good trend some where ;PCG. SDOW made money today 'cause DOW is down-but nothing like the bear market last year.
    [5]QQQ is up >8% ytd; looks like its going to uptrend thru 50dma. NOT a predicition
  6. Specterx


    You can get cues from the daily. For indices, range and volatility opens up when the market starts to sell off, stays high in the first few sessions off the bounce, then contracts as the market settles into a bull grind. Breakout attempts of daily levels (either way) also tend to be more active. A look at the daily shows we are consolidating at recent swing highs and vol is declining, so narrower ranges and chop are a possibility.

    If you need to confine yourself to more volatile sessions, then you should accept that you will miss the initial break and sit on the sidelines until we have another strong down day - which usually means elevated volatility for at least several sessions after. Or, you can tighten up your target expectations and practice trading the bull grind conditions.
    murray t turtle likes this.
  7. EsKiller


    OP, look at that 1 minute chart of the NQ. I traded it this morning like you did. That 9:37am(eastern time) up bar had way too much volume. But that bar alone can't be used to disqualify the pullback. Look at the 9:38 and 9:39 bars. While the volume was decreasing at 938 and 939, the ranges were also decreasing when measuring open-close. Therefore, I like to call that volume 'on par' meaning bullish. And looking at the open from 9:30-9:35 there really isn't a great resistance bar to take a short. So I avoided short here. the 9:32am down bar is a high volume down bar with follow through so that was the only marginal resistance area...and it did actually hold for a while.

    Also, the 9:26am est bar gave us a higher high, while the 9:36 am est bar gave us a lower low. What does your trading plan say for trading markets where it goes from higher high to lower low ? I rarely take shorts on the first wave without adequate resistance in this circumstance.
    murray t turtle likes this.
  8. %% Exactly what happened, on NasdaQQQ.
    Any other clues that one could get stuck/stabbed in a barbed wire range ??
    Well last year, below 200dma, below 50 day moving average;
    good bear trends, most all the trends were down+ gaps down , down in almost everything.

    And sure enough QQQ still gapped down [open]last 2 days in a row, so far so good, going down-but cant even clear 60 minute range yesterday today-oops.Some may make money in a slop chop, but some of them cant do regular trends.

    And when a 5 hour chart looks like chop + slop; 5 minutes may make a bigger mess.Actually i would rather be an action addict than lazy LOL; but do some research, instead of wasting money ........You may discover ,most every one here helped you.:cool::cool:
  9. Thank you everyone for your input and thoughts regarding this. I need to study ATR more as I keep hearing it being mentioned and I am not utilizing it.

    As far as the first 60min bar---being compared to previous day's range, do all elite traders utilize this analysis?
    I have not been doing this at all...have not backtested it either.. Still need to test first if this is a valid way to measure.

    In the end, I'm glad I left where I did instead of trading the rest of the session, as my losses would have been tremendous with this bullshit action

    I guess when volatility is decling or trending lower, I should stay out and when vol starts to rise, trade like how I have learned how to trade.
  10. qlai


    I'm curious why you look at inverted chart ... Do the patterns stand out better for you? Kind of confusing to me personally.
    Well if we could know in advance, we would all be rich. Are you talking about ranges or actual volatility? Not same. Sounds like you are asking about trending vs. non-trending sessions.
    #10     Jan 14, 2019