I was wondering is there a major diffrence between the street worrying about the isreali war with lebanon/syria and the us /iraq war. You would think the markets would just shake off the isreali war. Or is it just like the pundents say, and it's scapegoating. using the war as an excuse to sell?
I personally have a bad feeling about this war. I don't know what it is, but I just have one of those feelings that something bad is going to happen, very bad. Last time I had that feeling it was 3 years ago on a trip to Pennsylvania in the middle of a blizzard and the car did a 720 and ended up banging into a mailbox that seemed to be the strongest mailbox I have ever seen, but better the mailbox than through the side-railing and then off the side of the mountain that seemed to drop straight down. *It could always be worse* Just figured I'd throw that in for discussion. I don't really have an opinion about the markets though, depends on if Bad is Good for the markets or not. Which sometimes it is, but most times it isn't. All I know is gas prices will be going up, go figure. I just hope I'm wrong, ugh.
This activity may be comparable in scope to the 1967 war. Few people under 70 remember that war. This action coming now will be unlike anything anyone has seen. It may very well spill over into Iran. This may be the fight that all have talked about but deep down never thought would happen. John
Dad talked about that. I never seriously thought about this repeating. One would have thought that the lessons were learned at the time. Another thing our generation has not experienced was the oil boycott a few years later when it needed rationing and carless days. History tells me that people do not learn from history. In which case I would think this is going to be nasty and messy. (and it is no different in trading too: people keep on doing the same thing over and over again and keep on expecting a different outcome.) What do they expect if they keep on lobbing rockets in another country, that they just sit back and give up their territory? They have done it before but I do not expect they'll do it again. In fact I have admired the self restraint and have been suprised that this has not happened earlier. Just shuddering at the thought of all the appeasers (afraid for their oil supply) trying to please the trouble makers who started this in the first place. No different from the UK (was it Chamberlain?) having an agreement with Hitler. Stick their heads in the sand and hope it goes away and just affects someone else, as long as it does not affect them. These are depressing times. Maria
This latest conflict has an effect way out of proportion to its actual importance. First, it is driving crude oil prices up. Not for a "real" reason but because of worries that an oil shortage will develop. Secondly, a lot of Wall Street folks are Jewish and always get worked up and worried when Israel gets in a fight. So they sell. The conflict in Iraq objectively has far more impact on the world, but we've gotten used to it and that one is priced into the market. The huge deficits it is causing however may be a longer term weight on the markets. Just my two cents.
What do the charts tell you? In reference to the US led invasion of Iraq, the markets of the World (in general) sold off in anticipation of conflict. When conflict was realised, markets rallied.
well if this was like any other isreali war, the market should shake off the news pretty quickly. In almost all of the mini isreali wars, they just occupy a pieace of land, and a stalemate occurs. The reason for my post was that, it would seem the iraqi war would have been a bigger issue. But the markets are reacting like isreal was a major power. Or lebanon was a major power. Or lebanon had vast quantities of oil. I could iran jumping into the fray, and thats why the markets are reacting. But iran historically plays in the shadow. And only works behind the scene. So I don't see any impact on oil in that front. That's why Im perplex. unless it's diffrent this time.