Is thee in deep depression?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by NoMoreOptions, Mar 5, 2004.

  1. First of all is this called a deep depression? Then the question is how many people are suffering the depression? Third, are you feeling miserable fcking everyday too long? Lastly, how to end this all without too much pain? When will a hope of recovery be materialized?
  2. NoMoreOptions, how are you going these days? :)

    As to your question - Is thee? That's a very well-timed question indeed. Well I sure am, or was at least till yesterday... :(

    Yesterday, DAX, had my first notable losing day in 3 months, and largest losing day in my career EVER! No matter how many trades taken (sitting persistently through the drawdown, expecting a soon coming recovery and end of bad streak), it just didn't work out.

    I had a hit rate of just below 30% (usually over 70-80%), and pulled the "emergency brake" daily game over limit at EUR -3,500. I'd never imagined I'd even get that far. Mind you, about 1/3 through, I took off 1/2 size, then 1/2 again, then down to 1 contract, still lost. Otherwise, would've been down over 6K.

    This was witnessed by people in our chat room who witnessed me do 15-40pts per day on DAX for the past 3 weeks (ever since we opened the room), calling all trades live at or way before the fact, and with large targets (not tick scalping). None could quite believe it. Since the room was small yesterday, I hope (am pretty sure) nobody followed my calls, or whoever did would have received an a$$-whoopin' at least as bad as mine.

    The best irony is still to come: This morning, I backtested my approach (yesterday's calls) and realized if I had done the EXACT OPPOSITE of what I did yesterday and what I usually do, and with the SAME large targets (5pts+), I would have ended the day over 5K+ (I won't be specific). Now... Whoopee! It was a breakout day eating through volume all day, zipping up & down, and fades just didn't work.

    Yet, there was an invaluably great lesson learnt from this: Sometimes, doing the exact opposite of what you usually do is the right thing to do. The whole art is in knowing exactly when this is the case, having enough flexibility not to be bent out of shape.

    Well, am I depressed? Hmm. Well, I sure as hell was yesterday! Imagine to think all your approaches have failed and the market changed by 180 degrees! But No, today's a new day, and I'm starting this day positive, with careful size, getting back into the groove with confidence.

    Learn the lessons, but don't let them break you. Your confidence and faith in your abilities is all you have as a trader.

    Now, is the economy depressed? Don't know. It's all a matter of perspective, isn't it? Surely not for the wealthy people.

    A Rarely Humbled Scientist. :cool:
  3. 1. no
    2. don't know
    3. no
    4. no clue
    5. who's to say

    This has got to be (among others) one of the most worthless posts that I have ever made on ET....:D

  4. saxon



    If you have confidence in your method, don't start second guessing yourself. That's a recipe for getting REALLY lost.

    Occasional "whoopin's" are an inevitable part of the game; not necessarily an indication that you are doing anything wrong.

    I'd wish you luck, but I don't think you really need it.

  5. What else is new from this one.
  6. prox


    File bankruptcy and go back to work.. if you can't cut it emotionally, there are better solutions than death.

    Trading is not for the meek.
  7. And:

    6. who's your daddy?

  8. Thanks for your great words, saxon. You're precisely right. The wisest word I've heard on this topic (exactly what I said to myself and what my best friends said). This is all that counts.

    My confusion was caused by the fact that despite a large sample size (over 30 trades yesterday), the edges didn't manage to become profitable. This is, at the very least, an unlikely occurence (usual system hit rate is 73%, R:R is 1.7:1). That is what got me so distressed. I thought my edge had disappeared.

    Today, I traded again, carefully forward-testing with smaller size. Several winners in the morning, then just kept losing again. 4/5 through the day, I did a complete backtest by hand on-chart and discovered, according to my system, I should have been way up over 20pts instead of down!

    Now I knew it: I was just sabotaging myself! The error was me, not the system. Out of nowhere, I committed the typical newbie errors: Taking profits out of impatience instead of running the full target, cutting a "loser" too soon, jeopardizing good trades, and pulling limits because scared by the tape or similar things. Can't even believe I'd ever again slip into something like this!

    So, subconsciously, just because my systems didn't work for one day, I lost faith in them, and started throwing in nasty discretions!

    Clearly, it wasn't the money lost yesterday that depressed me, but rather the actual fact that I lost. It was rather unexpected to occur on a day-end basis. That's what got me into the wrong thinking mode here.

    Situation cognized & corrected, I traded my edges as usual, and after 11:00(!) till 13:00 EST still worked my way back from a losing day into a well profitable day!

    Happy my edges are anything but dead. Back in the Zone, Monday here I come.

    Best to You,
  9. LOL! Are you sure? Here's the definition of meek:

    adj. meek·er, meek·est

    1. Showing patience and humility; gentle.
    2. Easily imposed on; submissive.

    Which one would you rather like to apply here. Now, is trading for the meek, or not?

    Ran right into it, though, nice! Gotta love smartasses, ey! :D

    As for your surely friendly-meant comments on meekness, bankruptcy and death:

    1) Work? I prefer to let my money work for me. But I do have another business in the art industry, too, which works for me, without me. Although I'll design a new production line from time to time or maybe do a painting and put it out there.

    2) File bankruptcy / death? You mean after the financial drawdown of 3.5K? LOL prox, do you know what kind of gain days were witnessed in our room alone over the past month? In Feb I had several 5-figure days, doing 20 DAX and 20-40 ES a pop. No boasting, just posting. I'm not quite sure if you and I are thinking in the same frames here. Perhaps you're what American brokers like to call a "piker", in which case your personal threshold notion for bankruptcy filing may apply, however that is none of my business or interest.

    As you might have noticed, it wasn't the lost money that distressed me, but the fact that I actually lost. Too bad, congrats if you're a better trader than me. I'm always willing to learn from another true market wizard. And don't dare believe anything I said above.

    This is exactly why I replaced frequenting ET with maintaining a close circle of active communication with actual traders. Not enough reward here for the time put in reading through all the smarties. As they say: "If you want to fly with the eagles, don't mix with turkeys."

    Thanks for the chuckle,
  10. ertrader1

    ertrader1 Guest

    The DAX actually moves? From what i here is shit trading as is the BUND and bobel.......maby i am hearing it wrong from the boys on michigan ave, in chicago.....thats all their firm does and its not as rose as you make it out to be.
    #10     Mar 5, 2004