Is the worst of the recession Over?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by monty21, Apr 19, 2009.

Is the recession over? Will the S&P 500 make a new low at 666?

  1. Yes... we will break the 666 level

    53 vote(s)
    45.7%
  2. No... but we will go under 700 again

    39 vote(s)
    33.6%
  3. No... we won't get even close

    24 vote(s)
    20.7%
  1. You may be right
    I may be crazy;

    But it just may be a lunatic $10,000 toiler plunger soon you're looking for (with 13 million lost jobs and counting);

    Turn out the light
    Dont try to save me;

    You may be wrong for all I know
    But you may be right
     
    #41     Apr 29, 2009
  2. Billy Joel is not the one I'd look to for wisdom. Especially when it comes cash and stuffs and things.

     
    #42     Apr 29, 2009
  3. Well, I can't argue with that.

    I can argue against the increasingly common 'conventional wisdom' that inflation is about to run amok, and also inflate equity prices, simply because the government is pumping cash into the financial sector, at a time when resource utilization and real consumption are plunging and unemployment is skyrocketing.
     
    #43     Apr 29, 2009
  4. I hear ya. I really do. I'm not saying it's going straight up I'm just saying that now for the first time in years I feel that Monetary policy is now incredabilty accomdative. Inflation can occur without employment or GDP growth.

    And the CAPEX figures are not all that bad. And as I said before the deflator is rising. We shall see.

    The headlines and anecdotes suck. But there's no money in that.



     
    #44     Apr 29, 2009
  5. Concur.

    Why do we need our chief executive spreading cheer and relief every other day?

    The only problem is that the media manipulation is getting obvious to even those who are daft. Perhaps we get a bounce out of this but the fundamentals won't change. Eventually there will be another reckoning - probably not as soon as any of us permabears expect but it will come.

    The titanic struggle of monetary inflation vs credit destruction deflation continues. Hold on to your hats kids - gonna be a bumpy ride.
     
    #45     Apr 29, 2009
  6. Here you go. August 2010:
     
    #46     Apr 30, 2009
  7. Mvic

    Mvic

    Major U.S. Retailers Face Net Store Loss After Closing More Stores Than They Opened in 2008

    http://www.costar.com/News/Article.aspx?id=3E4BE95B7E0C86C472575C145DCC44B0

    If things don't turn by next week looks like I will be stopped out of my shorts (SRS calls, SPG puts, ES puts) which are taking a royal beating. Sox looks like it is confirming the breakout to the upside and is close to hitting my 271 stop. If Sox closes above 271 SP above 895 I will go long, until then staying short.
     
    #47     Apr 30, 2009
  8. You'll go long and then it will reverse :]
     
    #48     Apr 30, 2009