In the last 50 years, "worst is behind us" always meant the upswing continues like clockwork. Never a 10-20 year sideways grind of GDP a la Japan. What if this isn't our typical V-shaped contraction?
I like this guy's articles: http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/petrov/2008/1208.html December 08 The Initial Phase â Financial Crisis Unfortunately, the depth and length of the crisis are currently being discounted. At the moment, the crisis is in its initial phases. What is taking place only has affected mostly the financial sector; there has been only a minimal effect on the real economy. However, at the latest by next year, the second phase of the crisis will begin, with spillover effects into the economy. In 2009, the weakness of the global economy will become central. Check. The Second Phase â Economic Crisis The lack of money becomes evident in the second phase of the crisis â the financial crisis is replaced by an economic crisis, triggering massive bankruptcies that would spread globally in a chain reaction. After the series of initial difficulties encountered by home borrowers and the construction companies, there have been no bankruptcies so far in manufacturing, shipping, media, food processing, not to mention luxury goods like luxury cars, yachts and watches, or exotic businesses like space tourism. But their time will come. During the second phase of the crisis, another large sum of capital will âevaporateâ from the market, because a company which is going bankrupt will leave nothing for shareholders and very little for its bondholders. In the second stage of the crisis, unemployment will begin to grow along with the wave of bankruptcies. Check. The Third Phase â Hyperinflation Throughout the series of crises, politicians will attempt to interfere in the game, but the third stage of the crisis will nevertheless begin. Since banks were âsavedâ with large bailouts, politicians will also begin to lavish corporations with various aid packages. The recent charade of automakers begging for money is only the beginning. Thus, measures will be undertaken that, in the opinion of politicians, will help the economy and save jobs, something that will likely become known as Obamaâs âNew New Dealâ. This will include a multitude of spending programs and, above all, the loaning of credit with astronomical increases in the money supply, together with the classifying of the corresponding numbers into the trillions. Just like now nobody talks any more in terms of millions, so in the not so distant future no one will be talking any more in terms of billions. Trillions will be the order of the day. Perhaps bank lending standards will be relaxed. Perhaps the government will lavish the banks with a lot more money than it does today, just to keep them lending. Perhaps the central bank will directly monetize private debt. Perhaps the government will guarantee many more corporate loans, just like it recently guaranteed the securities/loans of the GSEs. Perhaps GSEs will proliferate throughout the economy, transforming the U.S economy into the âGSE Economyâ, transforming a former great capitalist economy into a modern-day nationalsozialistische economy. Perhaps the government will implement all of the above. It will seem for awhile that peace has arrived, that the crisis has been overcome, as if the bankrupt companies have been âsavedâ, although this will only be the calm before the storm. Check? Thanks for any thoughts.
AP reports: âNew signs emerge that the recession may be easing.â The Stock Research Portal responds: Really? âThis conclusion makes absolutely no sense to me. While some want to see âlight at the end of tunnelâ ⦠the U.S. Commerce Department reported construction of new homes and apartments fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 510,000 units in March, second lowest in the 50 years of record keeping.â Market Data and Economic Research
Your Market Data/Economic link did not work... Did you mean http://www.stockresearchportal.com Are you also spamming this website? I quickly browsed it and it seems like you have to join before seeing anything. You can get most of their information at wsj.com (Markets section) for free. Summary of all Mkts: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/marketsdata.html Stocks: http://online.wsj.com/public/page/news-stock-market-movers.html Bonds: http://online.wsj.com/public/page/news-fixed-income-bonds.html Currencies: http://online.wsj.com/public/page/news-currency-currencies-trading.html Commodities: http://online.wsj.com/public/page/news-oil-gold-commodities.html World Markets: http://online.wsj.com/public/page/news-asia-asian-europe-european-markets.html
MS has poor earnings, Freddie Mac CFO commits suicide, subpoenas are given out all over the place... and the market is still up today! Is Wall Street believing Geithner's bs?
The governments are "ALL IN" on a small pair in hand! The odds are there is a "FULL HOUSE" in the opposite hand.
With 2 million empty unsold houses on the market and more coming each day, we are far from having this recession over.
Why is the market up today though with all the bad news. Logic says the market should be going lower, but price is pointing up.
We are at or very near (within a week) of this bear market rally being done. When it is the down side will be swifter than many imagine. I expect to see the SP well under 800 by mid may. Take a look at the weekly charts, they tell the clearest story. Apart from the SPG short that I initiated today I am buying OTM puts on ES. Will stop out if $sox closes above 270.
Where are all the dumb ass PPT posts by Bluestreak and Dodge now that the market dropped some 130 points at close? Why are there no threads in the trading forum about how the government is propping everything up? Llamas!