I screwed up on those links but you can cut and paste them. One of them actually has the same name. You should really disregard what I said though, if you want to discuss anything have at it. I had no business butting in.
remiraz, when you state that you essentially don't think trend following is worth it...or that it's 'that' good do you realize you STOP your own thought process? instead of saying, 'this is bunk, it doesn't work' you might do better to say, 'i don't understand it, but it might work...now how can *I* make it work'. since YOU have stopped the discovery thought process in your own mind by having the belief that 'it doesn't work', you are simply posting here to bolster your own internal belief that you are quite unsure of. if you had exhausted all possibilities of trying to 'find out how to make it work'....and STILL couldn't....you would more peacefully be able to put the issue to rest in your own mind and have no need for a thread such as this. ...of course trend following works, as does virtually every other form of trading given the proper RvR, trade manegment, money management etc. Now, if you held THIS belief that I just stated....that would lead you to a path of discovery and abundance, rather than to a deserted plain of aimless wandering. in short, change the thoughts that change the attitude that change the action that lead to discovery.
On a monthly closing basis the Dow has been in a 4% range for the last 19 months. For the past 9 years the Dow has been moving sideways in a 52% range
This is the best answer in this thread although the thread originator would probably not concur. Great Post!
actually my train of thought goes: "woah 80% of trader don't make money. almost 100% of traders knows the trend is our friend. 50% of traders including college grads and Ivy League smarty pants have backtesting software. Now, if going with the trend has positive expectancy why would 80% of traders fail??"
Trading in the direction/trend of the major indices in the time frame that you trade is for my approach (swing trading) one of the key elements. But you have to time your entries and apply risk management to make money. You cant say oh well the market seems to be going up lets buy some stock. Buying break outs only works in extreme bull or bear marketsand even then timing is very important.
I think that at least part of the apparent discrepancy can be explained by differences in interpretation. Different people will define trend differently, even while using the same time frame. Further compounding the issue is the fact that what some may view as a confirmation of trend for entry purposes, others may view as a preliminary exit point. Accordingly, results will vary. Therefore, I think that glib comments about "trends," one way or the other, are fairly meaningless. Just my opinion.