Radom? Normal Pull Back. Not sure how long you have been trading but it's far from normal. IMHO, the curtain has fallen. WAKE UP TIME for the fools. Fed, Gov, are out of ammo and the Debt is now 100% GDP. So, while DC list TEA PARTY as Domestic Terrorist and most fools on ET loose their arses....the reality of a Non-recovery is dead in your face. Unemployment numbers revised upward. We were not below the 400,000. Mark This is the END GAME. Now, we can possible see a bounce and the Yahoos come out to call this a correction. Of course, we shall continue to sell...because after all that DC talk, after all that "DONT WORRY EVERYTHING WILL BE FINE IF WE RAISE THE DEBT CEILING, the HOPE AND CHANGE IS AROUND THE CORNER TALK.....all BULLSHIT. So as the fools watch the curtain fall and expose the WIZARD as a Farce......whispers of "DEPRESSION" are starting to circulate among the Sheeople. Sad thing is, AMERICAN voted for this CHANGE. Congress backed this Change and many states want to tear down the system to replace it with SOCIALISM. So, have it fools. NY, IL, CA et all. Have your shit sandwich and eat it while you vote for the Same Two Parties next year. Keep you bullshit up and over there. Stay the Fuck away from Texas, ND, AZ, and the other key free and pro-business states. CME, come on down to Dallas or Houston. Get the fuck out dodge. The rest of you Liberals....stay where you are. Enjoy HOPE AND CHANGE.
Thing is, `flation is running what? 3%? Back in QE2 daze, it was a meager 1% and Uncle Benjie could go to town. But now, his reach is limited. We post 5% and the geezer fixed income crowd is pulling down zilch in interest and we're gonna have a lot of POed voters. Plus QE2 was less successful than QE1. QE1 failed. How do we know this? because we needed QE2. And QE2 failed since we now need QE3. Which will fail as well. Uncle Benji is out of bullets. http://www.theonion.com/articles/drunken-ben-bernanke-tells-everyone-at-neighborhoo,21059/
`flation is running what? 3%? --------------------------- true numbers near 5 %to 6%/ even with oil pulling back today?
Are we selling the rumor and getting ready to buy the news? Or is this the end of the world as we know it? Normal pullback? I don`t think so...
If there is a collapse, it will likely be even quicker than the 2008-09 drop. Equity investors aren't apt to repeat their recent mistakes by holding positions going into a recession. This correction has already been significantly swifter than normal.
Read Rome's history, as well as Greece and possibly even Babylon. They, along with America, have the eagle as their national symbol and were, in their day, world super-powers. They all have the same history. And we're tracking right along like a storybook. In short, 200+ years of democracy, a period of industrialization, shrinking number of farmers doing more and more food production, rising welfare and free entertainment for the masses who live in the cities. To handle this, taxes went way up. The military anexed many parts of the world, and, when their forces were spread too thin and the people could not pay enough taxes to handle the rising debt, foreign troops came in and attacked the world's most powerful nation in it's weakest and most vulnerable state. So, what's going to save us you ask? It was at that time in Rome's history that a Caesar took over. He loved the country and restored it to its peak and beyond. But the people became so dependent upon his leadership that, when he had done what he set out to do and restored Rome's glory, he was unable to get the people to stand on their own two feet again. They had grown to love being spoon-fed which forced a second caesar instead of the reinstitution of democracy. And the next caesar was more in love with power than the nation. And the next, moreso until their greed caused Rome to crumble and cease to be a superpower. If it is the big one, you can expect unemployment to go much higher. After that, the government will no longer be in control. Not because they won't be in power, but because the state of our country will be so desperate that their decisions will be forced. No matter what they say or promise, they will have to raise taxes well above 50% to support the more-than-50% of the population that will be employed. At this time, other nations will take advantage of our temporary weakness and attack, and succeed. Then taxes will go up again to support the already too widely spread military. When that doesn't work, then you can expect marshal law and a "lifetime president" to follow. I don't know if the sky is falling. But when it does fall, the latter half of Rome's history will be the latter half of ours.
Nothing to be alarmed about yet. A good bet would probably be 50% tracement from mount Everest (1570) to the devils bottom (666), or if you don't like that, how about 50% retracement of the meteoric rise from the 2009, devil's bottom to the Gee Whiz 1370 high. That one would be about 1020. And iv'e noticed a nice little hangout at ~1200 not far from where we ended the day. Pick the landing spot you like best, I guess. It's summer, its real hot, --especially in that hell whole called Dallas -- there's some big hurricanes expected to visit, and there has been lots of bad news, including that, speaking of "Rome", the Pope may not be who he says he is. The dollar seems to be strengthening some, on the heels of the morons in Washington taking a baby step toward getting their shit together. (Actually, I think morons are supposed to be slightly less retarded than imbeciles, so I suppose it is technically more correct to refer to House members as imbeciles and Senators as morons.) When you have a market driven almost entirely by inflation you should expect it to be sensitive to the dollar, and as we all know, the emotional factor assures that the big moves will be overdone. If the dollar goes up the market will go down. That's as it should be. And of course it will go down an irrational amount, and that's as it should be too! There was still enough MOC sell orders today to more than mop up buy orders of the covering shorts. That tells me that the selling is not over and we did not yet have enough willing big buyers coming in on the close to push the market up and create a lovely, and long, bottom tail on the daily candle. Until I see that on some nice volume, I think we don't go up. The OPM jockeys have to do something with all that money, and eventually they're gonna buy and start pushing the market up again, only to repeat ad infinitum for, oh maybe the next twenty years. I am so damn thankful I can trade a little, buying and holding stocks really sucks bad. ____________________________ "It's not that we don't know the solutions to our problems, we do! It's that we are not willing to act, because if we do someone we depend on will make less money." --Joseph Henry Vogel