Friday's sharp selloff from the highs could prove to be a change in direction at least for the short term.
I have found that the 10/75 SMA's displayed on the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and the Russell small cap indexes seem to work well with regards to "what market" are we in. Going back over 3 years, they do a damn good job. Right now, we are "long" condition. just my 2 cents
I've still got a large portion of my options money in Sept 90 DIA puts. Reasons why I think the DOW will go below 8700 (my average break even point) by the 3rd week of Sept: Historically, Aug and Sept are the markets worst months. The VIX, VXN are signaling incredible complaceny. Ditto for the investors intelligence and market advisory numbers. Alot of speculative excess is coming back in vogue. The internet junk pile of CMGI, theglobe.com , etc are leading the charge . Just the other day on the front page of the LA Times was a story about how Sillicon Valley is rising from the dead. People are thinking its 1999 again. Just a fool's paradise. IMO, this is as sure of a bet as I've ever made in the market.