Is the Rally almost over??

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Trend Fader, May 16, 2003.

  1. I dont know if this rally is over.. but here is when I will be fully in cash.. and start to look to short aggressively..

    We need to breakdown from the uptrend channel... take a look...
    Very basic analysis.. but it usually works better than most of the other arcane stuff...

    - KISS

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    I'm with you ... lightening up on long positions and starting to go short a little bit. My biggest concern is any bad news recently has been blown off as we headed higher ... thus, the careful selective shorting.
  3. TrendFader

    That's right, I'm all over this one. I've been getting short all week and I've had to cover prematurely of get stopped out. This short position will last ... I hope.
  4. Well.... not exactly.. take a look at the auto sector... bad news alongside some downgrades...

    You have GM breaking down... auto parts distributors getting smoked.. like GNTX especially...

    Transportation getting hit badly.. especially EXPD...

    Retailers in poor shape... JWN, KSS, S ( looks about to roll over)

    - I would say overall the market is falling apart outside of tech land... the only stocks still going up are the sub $5 small craps...

  5. Guys,

    It might be worth it, given the strength of this uptrend, to wait for that telling reversal bar before taking action. A break of the trend line and failed retest would also be great.

    Until I get those, I'd be sitting on my hands. The swing high is key. Even a failed swing high would be helpful information to take it the other way.

    I was just rereading Paul Tudor Jones' interview in MWizards where he admits to trying many times to catch the reversal. He might fail 5 times with tight stops, but when he catches it, he cleans out and lets the trend followers get into the dog fight.

    Wonder if he's still at it today...

    P.S: I tried to start a thread on advance decline data. Does anyone know where I can find the historical data for advancers and decliners? Thanks.
  6. garbo


    This is what has been driving this rally all along: Traders getting short in anticipation of the plunge (à la 2002).

    Then some buying interest comes in, and every short gets stopped out.
  7. sit on your hands, you are just getting trigger happy and paying too much attention to the news. There is absolutely no sell signal yet.
  8. dbphoenix


    That's probably one reason why the rally won't die.
  9. When a thread is started on ET comparing the market to George Foreman, a reversal can't be far away.
  10. Maverick...

    I agree to wait for the confirmation break.. thats what I said in my first post....

    Right now.. I am making a list of some of the weakest stocks.. that I want to be ready to short.. assuming we do break the uptrend channel.

    Tudor Jones is still running his hedge fund.. but honestly I couldnt care less for what he said.. or what he has to say... he is no smarter or dumber than any of us...

    Trying to top tick the rally is stupid even with tight stops.. just wait for a trendline break... If you try to top tick a rally that means you are not long and not riding the wave on the right side of the market...

    Just look at everyone trying to top tick many small losses can they possible take? I would love to be on the other side of the trade.. riding Ebay up to $100

    #10     May 16, 2003