A few reasons to think the bear market might be done: 1) After a long and major bear market decline, there was a very large, sharp rally of 35% in a month recently 2) After trading much weaker than the rest of the energy sector (crude, gasoline, heating oil) for a long time, NG is now trading much stronger than its related markets. E.g. today it is up big despite energy in general being flat to slightly down. 3) Sentiment is still bearish despite the constructive recent price action 4) Natural gas reached 15xATR below the 200 day MA, a very overextended position. Even now it is still way below the 200 day moving average. With the recent sharp correction (18% in just over a week, retracing 70% of the prior big rally), and the rebound in the last 2 days, there is a nice entry point here. A logical place for a stop would be the recent lows (2.31), and a move below 2.25 on a closing basis would definitely prove the trade wrong. Call options of 1-3 months expiry would also be a decent way to play it. If the bear market is over, then one would expect prices to rally to a bit beyond the next major resistance point, currently around 3.10-15, before any significant further correction. This would also roughly coincide with the 200 day moving average, so it seems a decent profit target. Any thoughts?