While it is likely the culprit of poor pnl is just me doing some shitty trading, the last week and a half has been really, really choppy. The market feels less orderly. The stocks I trade are popping back and forth on small bursts of heavy volume with little activity in between. The only movements are "pops" instead of orderly movements one way or the other. The only trades that have been working are the news trades where people crowd in and drive a stock one way or the other for a while. I'm just wondering if any of you have noticed the "change in feel" of things from Mid-July to the end of July. I'm assuming low-volume August will just be more of the same chop. Thoughts?
I will first make the disclaimer that I have only recently returned to day trading (approximately 2 months), and yes, I have noticed that the market is behaving a bit differently, particularly the past few days. For example, I am currently focusing on trading ADBE, and it is a choppy, spikey mess today. Typical daily range is roughly $0.70-$0.80, today's range is roughly $0.40 so far. Yesterday had a much nicer range (nearly $1.00), but I had already reached my self-imposed daily loss limit for the day before the trend became apparent to me...even then trading the trend would have required either larger stops than I am personally comfortable with at this time, or a few very well timed entries at potential points of resistance, as opposed to a more orderly (and higher volume) trend. It will be interesting to see how the market acts tomorrow (FOMC day) and also the remainder of the week, almost feels like things are on pause at the moment.
Just took a glance at ADBE and I agree with you. It feels like most of the liquidity is just vapor and the trades are mostly just being made by whales who push it one way or the other.
The tape has been like this all month. After the vol got sucked out of this market end of June this was inevitable. Just a time to be smaller and more selective. Markets usually resolve themselves out of ranges one way or the other. It looks like higher with the way things are playing out in the bond market. Time will tell. Have to trade the tape we are given. When the market changes composure you can get more agressive!
ADM is a good example. It starts a one penny consolidation at 15:25 which lasts for 12 or 13 minutes. It finally breaks so I'm short. It initially looks like a good trade on a continuation of a really weak high volume stock. But, of course, it reverses and rips through the upper consolidation level like it wasn't even there, stopping me out. Again. I saw that in a dozen stocks at the same time it was happening with ADM. Chopped to shit the last couple of days. I'm actually having a pretty good summer, including July. But the last 2 days have made me want to start taking micro profits whenever I see them. But I hate trading that way.
This right here is the perfect example. The start of the move happened in a matter of 400 milliseconds and the bid moved 3 cents, and then there was some follow-on action. I'm automated, but those reverse runs that start off with the sweep are killing me this past week.
I'm also automated. I got the .02, and seriously thought about overriding the API and taking my 5 cents and shutting down, just because the same damn thing happened to me all day. And most of yesterday. But if I had done that all month, I wouldn't be able to say I had a good July. But here comes August. Ruh roh raggy.
How's today going? I'm green but the numbers are stupidly small. I'd be having a great week if I just took 10 or 15 cents as soon I saw it. Maybe that's just how August needs to be. Like i said, I hate trading that way, but oh well.
My PnL is crap, mostly small losers, no clear signals, just more popping. I cut size across the board, but have been casting a wide net to fish for opportunity. Just a lot of 100-lot losers everywhere.
Well, for what it's worth, I just talked to the support guys at Echo, and they said many are struggling, but quite a few have adapted and are doing very well. I can personally say that my green day is getting greener by doing the rapid fire crap which I don't like to do. As they say: Adapt or die. Good luck and hang in there dude.