Agreed, corn-based ethanol is a less than useful program for us in terms of efficiency, and I don't expect it to last. As far as economics go, coal, nuclear and hydrocarbons are the cheapest things we have to make energy at this point, so until energy as a whole gets expensive enough and stays there, it will be a slow migration toward cleaner technologies. It seems unlikely that people will adapt their consumption behavior for energy until they have to (price), so I suspect that prices will continue higher over time, and that the percentage of income dedicated to energy will increase.
This is assuming that the long term bull market in oil is a speculative trend, and not a trend based on real supply and demand based on our growing world and supplies in the ground and production capacities. Speculators will ride the wave, but we aren't the sole cause of it.
That and the fact that there is no current substitute, only bridges at best. But then again, the soccer mom on the BP commercial is probably the best consultant.
I agree here. How could they control something that is not theirs? The largest oil companies are not in north america, so control over their actions, and all the politics that surround these companies, is very difficult, even impossible.
there is a huge speculator premium in oil, combined with a huge terror premium when will it unwind? no idea.... will it go higher, could easily
There's no reason for the premium to ever unwind, it's there for a reason, and these reasons aren't gong away anytime soon. I would say the odds are that the premium will increase slowly over time. In my opinion, it's going higher and there's no stopping it. Correction, fine, but then we take out the high.