King, when I said "I know" I was trying to speak on the poster's behalf as in, if HE thinks HE knows. I could care less if a market is manipulated and you're right, I have no way of knowing or confirming that it is. It won't change my p&l any if a market is or is not manipulated.
right I was trying to walk you thru the mindset. If you lost big on Silva for example its much easier to say he threw the fight than to admit you made a bad bet. I had a teacher who would always refrain "kill your ego" its that part that really wants and needs to be right. Let's face it it feels good to be right. How many accounts have been blown over the years because the ego needs to be vindicated. I think this was what slumdog was referring to. If you are wrong get out, like ACD you have to leave the finer points of that to each individual, execution right?
You're splitting hairs here. A bubble is any kind of mania in which everyone is doing the same thing and believing they can get rich. It doesn't matter whether it sets new levels or retests old ones. What's important is the collapse that comes after. Bubbles in secular bear markets do not necessarily set new highs. Bubbles in secular bulls always do. By the way, margin leverage reported by the NYSE is today almost at 2007 market top levels. Leverage is essentially an indicator of optimism. When you're convinced something's going to go up, you borrow to buy more.
Do you guys recall prior to 2008 the bubble in dry bulk shippers, coal,steel, fertilizer,oil,nat gas,farm and mining machinery producers and china stocks. Archer Daniels Midland was a momentum stock. Isn't it always bullshit and manipulation. Is a "move" ever appropriate and measurable. You guys are right ....it always overshoots. In a hundred years my amateur ass could never say how high or low something should go. It is taking me a long time to learn but, just shoot me if I express an opinion on anything but price and momentum again.
if you accept that the market is manipulated, in opposite, fundamental analysis loses its value, but not technical. Technical analysis, in this case, becomes more important as long as you know how to spot actions of big players - put some volume analysis in your arsenal and you know what to do.
Are markets manipulated? Yes. Is there anything you can do about it? No. Can you still make money from trading? You can make a lot of money from trading in manipulated markets. Look man, you can beat yourself up all day about how dodgy and manipulated markets are or you can do something about it. In fact, I would rather markets stay manipulated. You know why? It brings conviction. If I sniff secret buying the U.S. T-note futures about 1-hour before a data figure, and it trends upwards... and the data released is really bad, I am happy. You know why? Because next time, I follow the money. There is nothing better, as a trader, than when you find some rhythm in the market and you are following a series of trails that are done with conviction. You WANT financial institutions to be 100% sure that something is going to happen. One of the best traders in the world, 'Rambo', said that the market is like a comet... you can't see where it's going, but you can get an idea of where it's been from the price action. That's all you have to do man, try to get onto the comet and hop along. It's just human nature. It doesn't matter if we're talking about the U.S. Federal election, international Boxing matches, or insurance claims... whatever it may be -- people will always find a way to slip through the cracks and game the system. This is no excuse, though. You can still do it. There's too much evidence out there that it can be done.