Discussion in 'Trading' started by The Answer, Jul 26, 2005.
Somethings got to give!
I've been thinking we've topped since early last week. Been trading small and cautious since then as well.
I can't explain my reasoning but I believe we are on thin ice.
P.S. I am also biased since I trade more aggressively from the short side (i.e. more comfortable in down trends).
I really have no idea .. but things sure seem strong for summer and so far, quarter earnings are doing very well ......
appears to be continuing a slow crawl higher .... but things could change ... right now I am still biased long in many issues with just a few short positions.
Little bit like olympic skeet shooting, champs have to hiold misses to only 1 or or 2% ;
but real live, brainy gamebirds
=NOWHERE near that high 98 or 99 % hit rate.
DIA is still down for year;
QQQQ is sideways slop lately, & 4 day low.
SPY & homebuilders mostly up last 4 days
mostly UP this year, UP last 10 years;
call it not a prediction. , to put it simple.
Cool, I got the low vote again!
I agree with this sentiment, I think that the probability of downwards movement right now outweighs upwards movement.
That said, I'm not really sure what the catalyst for the downwards movement will be, we've been seeing very strong earnings so far, many of the techs are doing great (AMD, INTC, TXN...). Heck, the market has even been shrugging off terrorism...
Rally is favored. That's how they usually behave when they get like this.
lol are you guys managing enough money that the instantaneous liquidity is not there, to play the breakout from consolidation one way or other? we should know by tommorow afternoon anyway.
looking tired technically--------looks like the institutions are apprehensive about liquidity commitment at the upper levels of the previous days trading range.
I think this hard rally has been considerably magnified by the london bombings.
I really think we would have made one faint hearted run at 1225 and then turned down after earnings.
However what has happened is pretty unique. Immediatly following the bombings we saw a huge influx of overseas capital.
Meaning the US stock market was the 'flight to quality' alternative to most other markets.
If you needed better returns than bonds... the US markets were/are the best place to park it.
Now fast forward 3 to 6 weeks and we could very well see a outflow of that money... coupled with higher energy prices and continual lay offs in the US could lead to a substantial drop off from these levels.
The lay offs in the US market is the 'silent killer' in my humble opinon. One of these days the markets's gonna wake up and realize that a shrinking workforce is bad news for a BOOMING housing market especially those who have gone out and borrowed against their infalated home prices... suddenly they are out of a job... the borrown more... but still no job... oh man
this is my take, God know if or when it play out this way!
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