Is the Jobs forecast 50K or 70K?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by rc5781, Jan 3, 2008.

  1. rc5781


    Cnbc just said 50k and has 70k as the forecast....
  2. Forecast & expectations are between 70-75K
  3. The number isn't ever a real # anyway, it is subject to the birth/death adjustment. The fed can make the number look like whatever they want it to.

    A few months ago, they were expecting like +100K and had a minus 4K if i remember right. That allowed the 50 bp cut as everyone cried recession. Low and behold it was adjusted up to +90K or someting the next month. What a bunch of horse-shit!

    Reading the fed mins yesterday, they see the need for more substantial cuts but how do they justify that with inflation running rampant?? They fuck with the report again tomorrow.

    So my conspiracy theory of the day is that tomorrow will have a negative jobs #, thus creating the ability for either an emergency cut, or a guaranteed cut at the next meeting of 50 bp. (not that rate cuts will help this particular animal anyway)
  4. rc5781


    Did the market tank a few months ago on that negative jobs#?

    Don't you think it will tank tomorrow if it's negative? or even like 20K?

    If it's low I'll probably market sell the ES.

  5. I have no clue how the numbers will be but I'm long US index futures, short 30y bonds and short CHF and JPY into the report.... did I miss anything piggy bullish? No that should be it :cool: Good luck all.
  6. Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change
    Consensus 70,000
    Consensus Range 50,000 to 94,000
    Unemployment Rate - Level
    Consensus 4.8%
    Consensus Range 4.7% to 4.8%

    Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change
    Consensus 0.3%
    Consensus Range 0.2% to 0.5%
    Average Workweek - Level
    Consensus 33.8hrs
    Consensus Range 33.8hrs to 33.8hrs

    the NFP has a double whammy, besides the accuracy or not of the 'consensus', because
    of 'revisions', you now not only have to watch for the initial report but wait to learn if they've
    revised the previous report and by how much since that too will affect prices
  7. A recent Dow Jones survey placed the expectation at 50K expects 75k
  8. rc5781


    market sold for a quick 5 points
  9. [​IMG]
    #10     Jan 4, 2008