Discussion in 'Trading' started by rc5781, Jan 3, 2008.
Cnbc just said 50k and thestreet.com has 70k as the forecast....
CNBC is just like a company that lowballs the earnings expectations so there can be an upside suprise.
I'd use the dartboard method before their #.
I see the 75K on MSN
Forecast & expectations are between 70-75K
The number isn't ever a real # anyway, it is subject to the birth/death adjustment. The fed can make the number look like whatever they want it to.
A few months ago, they were expecting like +100K and had a minus 4K if i remember right. That allowed the 50 bp cut as everyone cried recession. Low and behold it was adjusted up to +90K or someting the next month. What a bunch of horse-shit!
Reading the fed mins yesterday, they see the need for more substantial cuts but how do they justify that with inflation running rampant?? They fuck with the report again tomorrow.
So my conspiracy theory of the day is that tomorrow will have a negative jobs #, thus creating the ability for either an emergency cut, or a guaranteed cut at the next meeting of 50 bp. (not that rate cuts will help this particular animal anyway)
Did the market tank a few months ago on that negative jobs#?
Don't you think it will tank tomorrow if it's negative? or even like 20K?
If it's low I'll probably market sell the ES.
I have no clue how the numbers will be but I'm long US index futures, short 30y bonds and short CHF and JPY into the report.... did I miss anything piggy bullish? No that should be it Good luck all.
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change
Consensus Range 50,000 to 94,000
Unemployment Rate - Level
Consensus Range 4.7% to 4.8%
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change
Consensus Range 0.2% to 0.5%
Average Workweek - Level
Consensus Range 33.8hrs to 33.8hrs
the NFP has a double whammy, besides the accuracy or not of the 'consensus', because
of 'revisions', you now not only have to watch for the initial report but wait to learn if they've
revised the previous report and by how much since that too will affect prices
A recent Dow Jones survey placed the expectation at 50K
Briefing.com expects 75k
market sold for a quick 5 points
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