Is the crypto winter over?

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by schizo, Jan 13, 2023.

  1. johnarb

    johnarb

    I believe if the Fed starts printing again and stops the QT and rate hikes that bitcoin will exceed $100k this year

    Not straight up, of course, with ups and downs, but yea, bull market in all markets

    You have a position or not yet?
     
    #541     Mar 12, 2023
    semperfrosty likes this.
  2. schizo

    schizo

    I'm holding a small position from 20K. As far as the Fed goes, it won't print again anytime soon for fear of stoking the inflation again IMO. But they can at least pause raising the interest rate, or do it intermittently as needed. That said, I don't think $100K is possible anytime soon but we'll still have a nice run up. Just my 2 cents.
     
    #542     Mar 12, 2023
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  3. johnarb

    johnarb

    I'm going to assume you're long and not short :rolleyes:

    When they did the bailout today letting everyone know that they will have full access to all their funds at SVB and SBNY and all the banks, do you not consider that as printing, money printer goes brrr?

    They can continue raising rates, but print at the same time. They are not mutually exclusive, see BoE when they bailed out the pension funds by buying their gilts
     
    #543     Mar 12, 2023
    schizo likes this.
  4. schizo

    schizo

    Eh? What made you think I was short? :confused: I mean, didn't I tell you explicitly not to short on Friday? :)

    So, yeah, I'm long but I'm pretty sure we'll likely retest the low again before shooting up. I think this is a bear trap. So I'll be looking to unload soon and then get back in once it retraces back down to 20,300-ish level.
     
    #544     Mar 12, 2023
    johnarb likes this.
  5. schizo

    schizo

    Well, I guess you can see it that way. But on a macroeconomic level, this is more a transitory than a permanent fix. So it wouldn't necessarily have a long-lasting effect IMO.
     
    #545     Mar 12, 2023
    johnarb likes this.
  6. johnarb

    johnarb

    Pandora's box has been opened. I do not think they can put the genie back in the bottle...

    The internet is a funny thing, this HTM stuff has propagated out there

    If you're one of the people that lost access to your funds last Friday, if you're one of the companies that missed payroll last Friday, if you're one of the businesses that are preparing for a massive layoff this week or maybe even announced one last Friday...

    Today, you are very happy but you better be more responsible and start diversifying your funds

    And all the others who saw what happened are looking at their banks and now have a question to ask, should we move the funds to JP Morgan?

    That's the reason the announcement was all the banks will be backstopped

    You think this is temporary? Is HTM stuff temporary?

    I don't think so
     
    #546     Mar 12, 2023
  7. johnarb

    johnarb

    I predict bitcoin hits $30k this coming week
     
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2023
    #547     Mar 12, 2023
    semperfrosty likes this.
  8. schizo

    schizo

    Dude, you need to make up your mind. :D You can't have both at the same time. How can you expect this economy to collapse but, at the same time, expect BTC to spike up? That's a contradiction.
     
    #548     Mar 12, 2023
  9. johnarb

    johnarb

    Oh boy... in my world, unlimited money printing is bullish, not bearish

    The Fed and their cohorts just told you they will backstop all the banks, forget the FDIC $250k protection limits

    I'm sofa king bullish I just told you I predict bitcoin will hit $30k this coming week but most importantly bitcoin will hit $100k this year

    There is no confusion. HTM is not temporary and the Fed money printer go brrr is not temporary

    No, I AM NOT EXPECTING THE ECONOMY TO COLLAPSE

    How you got that I'm BEARISH when the Fed is going unlimited money printer go brrr is beyond me

    Let me repeat, I AM UBER BULLISH!!!

    Stock market will rally tomorrow, too, btw

    [PS: anyone bearish in 2008 GFC and Covid economc shutdown was wiped out, financial darwinism at its finest]
     
    #549     Mar 12, 2023
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  10. schizo

    schizo

    Okay, I stand corrected. :) But I ain't so convinced we've turned the corner. Having traded for 30 years and seen two major bear markets (2000 and 2008), this is just my gut instinct but I need to see more confirmation before going all in.
     
    #550     Mar 12, 2023
    semperfrosty and johnarb like this.