Is the crypto winter over?

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by schizo, Jan 13, 2023.

  1. johnarb

    johnarb

    I made the bulk of my changes yesterday and previous night. Today, I only made one change which is to add a small amount 1k USDT to the collateral to lower the liquidation to around $22,800sh which I thought could hit after the FOMC meeting notes, so basically a give-up on that level

    I'm on barbell approach on the crypto portfolio until mid-to-end of May, safe and extreme risk, no more middle of the road, the tl;dr I'll save for my crypto macro thread

    I've drank enough kool-aid data from Twitter macro analysts I consider experts.

    They are saying good 1st half, but a hard landing on the 2nd half with a severe recession almost a certainty

    Sell in May and go away...

    https://entrepreneurshandbook.co/be-present-aff45d6421b4
     
    #481     Feb 22, 2023
    NoahA and schizo like this.
  2. schizo

    schizo

    LOL. Yeah, hence why I stay away from these macro gurus like a plague. :D

    Anyway, I got stopped out of my short!!

    Yet I don't know if this is a reversal or not, or if it's merely mirroring the equities tonight. Or it could be a last ditch effort, who knows. I'm sitting on the fence on this one, not committed either way.

    Personally, I can't say I like the way BTC moves. It's hard to prove but there's definitely an element of manipulation. :fistbump::thumbsdown:
     
    #482     Feb 22, 2023
    johnarb likes this.
  3. Overnight

    Overnight

    You know how that inflation has been "sticky"? Well, BTC sure seems to be sticky at that 20K mark. Long-term, look what is has done. It dropped to that level, hung out there for a bit, then made this crazy drop to 16K and hung out there for a while...Now it jumped through that level to like 25K, and now is trying to find that magnet level of 20K again. Crypto folks are crazy.
     
    #483     Feb 22, 2023
    semperfrosty likes this.
  4. johnarb

    johnarb

    I don't have any plans to sell any bitcoins from the local wallets until btc is over $500k each which would be in 5 years

    The only benefit I can realize on the btc short term moves would be through the casino btc perpetual futures trades.... and to some degree, the effect on the alt coins holdings which I have no long term bag holding plans

    That is why May is a critical decision point for all these short term positions

    tl;dr I do have a locked staked until December,but have a way around it, as the crypto asset is available to "borrow" on the defi platform so I can synthetically short in May giving up some of the yields of the stake

    ---------------


    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-from-global-stocks-in-50-surge-defying-macro

    Bitcoin Breaks Away From Stocks in 50% Surge Defying Macro Peril

    "A 40-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has slid below 0.3"
     
    #484     Feb 22, 2023
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  5. Overnight

    Overnight

    I so wish I could show you the video that visualizes EXACTLY what you are talking about. It's a BattleStar Galactica video. When the Galactica breaks it's back. PERFECT.
     
    #485     Feb 22, 2023
    johnarb likes this.
  6. johnarb

    johnarb

    A nice looking chart but not necessarily bullish, though

    If I get liquidated on my long btc perp futures 22.8k btc level, I'll stop trading and focus on my non-btc positions (yield farms)

     
    #486     Feb 24, 2023
    schizo likes this.
  7. schizo

    schizo

    upload_2023-2-24_12-3-1.png
     
    #487     Feb 24, 2023
    johnarb likes this.
  8. johnarb

    johnarb

    got liquidated...

    upload_2023-2-25_13-5-10.png
     
    #488     Feb 25, 2023
    schizo likes this.
  9. schizo

    schizo

    Bro, you got shaken out. But don't feel too bad. I think this damn thing ultimately will drop down to 21,500.

    upload_2023-2-25_14-57-31.png
     
    #489     Feb 25, 2023
    johnarb likes this.
  10. johnarb

    johnarb

    yup, I was thinking of adding a little bit more collateral this morning (a few hours before liquidation wick down) but where does it end, lol

    I'm still way exposed to bitcoin/cryptos, the only difference is that I don't have to worry about liquidation and still planning to hodl until May if funnymentals don't go to hell before that time
     
    #490     Feb 25, 2023
    semperfrosty and schizo like this.