And I'll tell you tomorrow what you should have done today. Anyway, these appear to be the Halcyon days of crypto. I'll shut up for now.
Which is that I should be buying. We are going up to 100k. That's pretty much a given ATM. And I'll let you in on where we will be heading after that.
I have no problem with 140K. But we've had almost 6 weeks of parabolic rise. That seems a little worrisome to me. I would much prefer we go steady at even pace like the arrow drawn below the price.
I think about this a lot, and I've said it a few times myself, and I've also read about it as well. Can we really use price action that we learn on traditional financial products and apply it to bitcoin? When we think of GME or AMC, that was clearly a concentrated effort to do a short squeeze. Shorts were actually bigger than 100% of the float. So it made sense that buying of shares, and especially contracts, forcing money makers to buy the underlying stock, would pump price. But then the "buy" button was turned off, and the whole thing came apart. With bitcoin, we do see the "buy" button can be turned off at coinbase for example when the platform supposedly goes down. But there are many more exchanges. And lets not forget that currently, ETFs are scooping up 10x the daily issuance of coins. Now granted, we don't know how many early miners are sitting on 1k or 10k coins that they are looking to unload, and I'm sure there will be a shit ton of supply at $100k, but bitcoin is not like any other financial instrument that we have analyzed in the past. It doesn't require profits, there is no worry of competitors stealing your "business" idea, buying cannot be turned off, its global vs. just a US market, and the list goes on. Now granted, since price is set at the margins, I have no doubt that there are entities that can crash the price with as little at maybe 1,000 coins sold at one exchange. But this will accomplish nothing. Limit orders get filled, that bitcoin gets more widely distributed and withdrawn, and now whoever did the manipulation is out of firepower. Most importantly, that bitcoin is now in the hands of even more people who will be a part of the adoption curve. This isn't a game that the government or JPM or any other bank can win since it doesn't play by the same rules as the other games where printed money can be used to manipulate the price. I think the only way for bitcoin to crash is a true rush for the exits by the holders, and not manipulation. We might see it at 100k, or there might be enough buying to support that selling, and then the rally just continues. Imagine enough people selling at 100k to cause price to drop to 80k, and then after a few weeks, that high is broken. Now everyone who sold is buying back in at higher prices. So a drop in price doesn't happen because of manipulation or high P/E ratio, but simply sellers selling. And I think this is different than how and why many stops drop in price after a parabolic rise. The stock parabola is usually manufactured. But the bitcoin parabola is eager holders looking for exposure. And once again, the market cap number doesn't have to be explained with balance sheets and income statements. I truly think that once bitcoin is running world finance, then we can talk about what price is too high. But until we get there, and clearly we are I'd say 100x away given how much global wealth there is if measured in USD, the relentless Bid under the bitcoin price is going to be there. I mean we have yet to hear about some Middle Eastern nation state adopting it. Now imagine this country says they want to be paid in bitcoin for their oil. So now other countries need to source bitcoin in order to buy oil. On the flip side, I think this can completely crash asset prices, and along with this, bitcoin might come down as well. But I think bitcoin as a percentage of global wealth will forever go up. Hence 1 BTC=1 BTC. Imagine a world where we don't think about the price of bitcoin, but we think about how many sats do you own. Gradually then suddenly, and I believe that can easily happen this decade. I see entire US cities crumbling, and the mayors of those cities are crying out for help from the influx of immigrants. We use $1T of debt to create $300B of GDP growth. These are late stage occurrences just before a collapse and reset.
All valid points, but I'm merely speaking about how fast BTC is rising over such a short period. I ain't concerned about if price action, like support and resistance, is relevant to BTC or how bitcoin is different from traditional assets or even whether another country will adopt bitcoin as their national currency or not. It's going up too fast. That's all I'm saying. I prefer to see a steady rise over a longer period like we've seen in 2023.
Agreed... but could this not also be a sign? We assume going up too fast means a looming crash, and yes, bitcoin has had 4 roughly 80% drawdowns. But look at this chart. The drawdowns so far are smaller in this cycle. Now could this mean a big one is coming? Sure. But could this also mean that the structure is different, and the cycles going forward will be different? Absolutely! (this chart appears to be a couple of months old, but there have been no substantial drawdowns since then... so it holds)
Actually, no, I don't anticipate a major crash. There's too much pent up demand from the FOMOs, which I believe will last for a while. However, when we get over 100K, I wouldn't be surprised to see 5% intraday moves (that's more than $5000 per coin) on a regular basis. Not many people will be able to stomach such large churns IMO. And since Bitcoin doesn't have a circuit breaker like ES when it reaches 5%, it will get pretty brutal. That said, I don't see a big crash in the horizon just yet but I predict these micro-crashes happening regularly. Just another useless thought. BTW is there a data out on the ratio between speculators and HODL folks? If the ratio is more than 2:1, I definitely would be suspicious of this rally. You never wanna trust the speculators. But you already knew that from my own actions, right?
Agreed. With the ETFs reporting every single day that their inflows are 10x what daily bitcoin issuance is, its difficult to think price can drop. Actually, you bring up an interesting point. Stocks are supposed to halt at 10%, right? Or is that just the indexes? I know ES and NQ there is halt at 5% overnight, and 7% during RTH. Then a 5 or 10 minutes pause. Then I think another halt at 12%. But what will happen to the ETF if bitcoin keeps trading at extreme levels. Will they freeze trading the ETF while spot bitcoin just keeps going??? Hmmmm... All that I have seen are metrics around coins that haven't moved in over 5 months. Lots of videos with a guy named Checkmate from Glassnode which does on-chain analysis. They seem to think that if coins don't move for 5 months, its a long term hodler. They also seem to be able to predict tops with coins moving to exchanges, and also other metrics. If you wanted to check out this recent episode, you will learn about some of their data. There is also more analysis here... They talk about this one indicator MVRV, which suggests how to price bitcoin. As you can see, when that blue bottom line starts going to high, its followed by a drop in price (pink line). The video is worth a listen if you're interested.
Agree.I see a shift over on Reddit from how many Bitcoin to how many Sats.Very important for continued retail investment. And adoption by the Gulf states is an exciting prospect.They are addicted to gold as their premium source of value so once again it would take a shift.Away from 'valuable and shiny' to 'valuable and xxx' i.e more divisible,more transportable,easier to store etc etc. Time will tell...Then we just need China to really spice things up!