I am actually looking at the high being about 48k before the ETFs started trading. And even on the first day when GBTC was selling, the GBTC+ETF inflows never went negative. So then we almost have to question how the price dropped 20% to 38k. Each day, more bitcoin was actually bought than sold, and yet price kept dropping. Clearly there was more selling going on from other people, but the ETFs by themselves took what GBTC was offering and then scooped up even more. So from my math, the high being 48k, and now we are at 51k, the 3k difference is very small consider that an extra 100k coins are now locked away with the ETFs. Obviously those coins came from somewhere, but the price appreciation didn't really happen until after Jan 23. And if I really zoom into the bars for a couple of days after Jan 23, the totals actually dip slightly lower for a few days. So while the coins held by these ETFs was dropping ever so slightly, price was now climbing. My point is that just like with the stock market where a stock can go down on good news or up on bad news, bitcoin price can drop even though these big ETFs were accumulating. At some point of course, supply becomes an issue, and this is what we are all waiting for, and the fact that we can trust and verify the supply is a never before seen opportunity. But the bitcoin price is proving to be very complex, and you would think 100k coins getting taken off the market would have a much bigger impact, at least I thought. This also makes me wonder about the Mt.Gox coins and what will happen, but that is a whole different story. This is truly scary if these companies are actually essentially doxxing individual user accounts. Absolutely. Sats spread out over multiple seeds is also part of my diversification plan.
But this is the heart of your argument, you're willing to take the high a few hours before the trade but dismiss the bottom of the 38k as a starting point of reference when 38k is right in the beginning first 10 days of the ETF's actively accumulating the 100k coins? $38k to $53k is a 40% move but, those are not sustainable market prices, basically what we call scam wicks, prices that occur during a short time on volume generated by short term traders, not long term buyers I guess I like to look at the glass half full. 52-week high for bitcoin, over $50k/btc, $1 Trillion market cap and the ETF's are only a month old... it has exceeded my expectations and I'm very happy but of course I'm expecting more... much much more, but I'm in no hurries, I got time, the only deadline I have is in July for MSTR options bitcoin-related We have 2 years of bull market ahead of us, is there a reason you want bitcoin to go very high right away? Not fully doxxed, , more like no PII, I myself treat them as such. Chainalysis has government contracts so assume they have full doxx access But everything you do now, are being tracked to you as an individual, when you use MS, Apple, Google, Facebook, ET, cookies, everywhere,, you're just not aware, ignorance is bliss Even non-KYC exchange are tracking IP addresses and just assume when ordered by gubmnt they will release any info you provided, fake email address notwithstanding Defi is your only hope for non-kyc stuff, and that's most likely going to be shut down in the future , but then again Metamask/Infuria/Consensys covers 90% of all the crypto users and they are US companies Just don't do anything criminal, everything will be fine we still have much more privacy in the decentralized crypto ecosystems than the web2, internet stuff
Didn't mean traders are evil, mate not on that post. I'm just repeating scam-wicks as an industry accepted description, lol
I of course have to take what the price was right before the ETFs started trading. I understand that there was some seed money that apparently already bought some bitcoin, but on the very first day, if somehow 10B flowed in, you can damn well bet that they would have had to start buying bitcoins throughout the day in order to make sure they had enough to cover the inflows. If there were no GBTC outflows, then this would surely have caused price to rise vs. drop. The way I see it, most people were aware that GBTC would be selling, but nobody knew how much the other ETFs would be buying. Perhaps what happened was that other people started to sell as well, just to not be exposed and see where the dust settles. So even though on the very first day, the outflows from GBTC were actually smaller than all the inflows, price still dropped. So this leads me to believe that lots of other people were selling. There is no point in using the 38k low as a reference point. By now, GBTC was still had outflows, and the other ETFs still had inflows that exceeded the outflows. But it was here that perhaps other people figured a 20% drop is about as low as it goes, so they can get back in. In fact, I saw some posts where they suggested there was a gap fill at the CME, and this is what caused the price to start rising since the gap was filled. (trading ES, gap fills are a real thing and quite predictive) Now I'm not sure how much a gap on a futures exchange will affect price, but I guess its possible that price can be pushed around for a while by wallstreet. I assume the price of futures is set by the spot price, and the spot price comes from several exchanges, so in order to affect the futures price, actual bitcoins have to be sold at those exchanges, but I'm really not too sure. My interest actually lies in what happens when we have that true supply shock. What happens if at one exchange, people stop selling and its only bids that are in the market? Then maybe whatever mechanism that is used to keep prices similar breaks. Maybe companies like River or Swan, who sell bitcoin, all of a sudden find out that whoever supplies their bitcoin doesn't have it, and refuses to deliver it at the quoted price because they know the number is somehow wrong. Not me. How can over 100k extra coins be bought, above what was sold, and price only move from 48k to 51k? I am sticking to my metrics and will try and illustrate it like this. On Jan 10, price was 48k and GBTC had 619k bitcoins, while the other ETFs had 0 On Feb 22, price is 51k and GBTC+ETFs = about 730k bitcoins. On this website, https://heyapollo.com/bitcoin-etf it specifically states there is 113k net inflows into the ETFs, and yet, price is only 3k higher from where we started. So on the surface, it seems that buying 113k bitcoins moved price only 3k. Clearly you can't extrapolate this because the next 100k bitcoins might not be so liquid at this price, and who even know if the ETFs can scoop up 1m bitcoins if the buying continues for the next 10 months. But I still expected price to move much more. I guess I'm happy because I added to my position at such a low price, but I still wonder how this is possible. There are clearly many factors at play here, and we have no idea where supply will come from and at what price, and where the supply crunch will hit. We can probably expect quite a bit of selling at the 69k ATH, and also $100k, but who really knows. Maybe this first 113k bitcoins was easy for the ETFs to buy, and the next 100k coins will cause price to spike up much higher and faster.
To add to my post, all the buying of these ETFs I think happens via OTC desks, and not even exchanges. The price of bitcoin comes from the exchanges, but the OTC desks have to deliver. What happens when an ETF needs 10k bitcoins, but the OTC desk doesn't have that many left? How are the OTC desks that do large orders connected to exchanges that set the price? How much inventory do OTC desks actually have? I can totally see a point in the future where you see the price of 1 bitcoin listed on an exchange where traders are trading against eachother, but the OTC desk cannot in anyway deliver even 1 bitcoin. Back in my precious metal days, you would always read stories about how dealers would be out of silver, they had no inventory. Price wasn't moving, but you couldn't apparently buy at coins or just very specific bars. With bitcoin, this game will be played out in the light, not in the shadows, and it will be fireworks!
Let's say I agree with you and accept your logic. Jan 10, and Feb 22, numbers delta bitcoins +110k net inflows to all ETF's, difference is +$3k in bitcoin price But now, since $38k happened on Jan 23 eyeballing the charts from your link it's 640k to Feb 22 730k, net inflows delta of +90k and price difference of +$13k ----------- I highlighted your last sentence. This is the premise of Samson Mow, btc to $1M within weeks. He has some videos, I probably won't do him justice paraphrasing him When a supply shock happens, it becomes a reflexive loop, higher prices begets more interest, begets higher prices, begets more interest, retail and institutions, begets higher prices and when the price becomes too high, it becomes a Veblen item (American Hodl same thought), the higher the price the more everyone wants a piece of it, fueling more demand while long term hodlers and ETF's are not selling any, and the miners stop selling ( the worst traders always holding on to bitcoins during bull market and always selling at the bear market bottom to pay for operational costs) Anyway, I am fully aware of your supply shock scenario but remember also that we have the biggest baddest market makers of TradFi able to stop this... until they cannot or will not, when incentives are aligned when their AUM on their ETF's are "enough" (They = JP Morgan, Virtu, Jane Street, Jump)