I had seen a video saying that current net purchases were around 9000 BTC/day, so the simple projection added up to 329500 BTC demand for the year.
Yes, I have seen that as well, but I do have to question if this type of buying is sustainable. On the one hand, I do think lots of funds will start adding BTC exposure via ETF purchases, but I also think that after a month of buying, this number will have to drop. Plus, I think there will be fireworks in March regarding banking, and if markets start dropping, the rush for safety and liquidity might mean another drop. Selling ETFs is extremely liquid, and part of the reason why even I like having a huge chunk of these bitcoin ETFs, and not just coins in cold storage.
I expect the ETF purchases to stay steady or increase until after the halving. The halving has to be the biggest selling point the funds have and I’m sure they’re beating the streets hard promising a no brainer investment . If the halving doesn’t produce a jump then it might be a harder sell after that.
Good stuff and info, thank you for that! Tai is Vietnamese but I think he goes back and forth between Thailand and Vietnam for their crypto investor group and may own real estate in both countries I don't understand it myself! I blame the JPM, Virtu, Jane Street market making games, they painted the tape bearish, did some momentum selling into liquidation price points and let the degens like me aggravate the selling when we got liquidated on our leveraged positions This changed the over all market structure to bearish for a couple of weeks But it doesn't last, the inflows matter, the bitcoins being acquired by the ETF's matter in the longer time frame As an aside, saw a post, I think it was Mike Alfred saying he knows a whale that sold 75% of the bitcoin stash and put the money to the ETF's and supposedly this is not the only who's doing this That could be a source of selling... SEC fu gift to us with the cash-creates vs in-kind creates that would not have necessitated selling Now, for the life of me don't understand why any bitcoiner who has held for so long and is a whale, would do such a thing.... but if you consider this is a part of enjoying the riches, estate planning, diversification.... with the ETF's as collateral, maybe get those private deals 1% interest bank loans like was shown in that bank bankruptcy can't remember the name, then they get to be part of the system that benefits without paying taxes but still able to live in luxury
or increase.... RIA's are not able to buy new products for at least 3 months so the trillions locked up under their management are yet to come to the bitcoin spot ETF's
These are all good reasons, and I think another is actually added safety. Look at all the fallout from the Ledger customer hack. If people know your name and address, you're a prime target. But you don't really hear of too many being robbed from their brokerage account. I think the diversification aspect is also huge, and especially so if you have a large stack. So I think having coins in cold storage with multiple keys is smart, but also having your bitcoin in an ETF is also smart.
I suppose some people might consider it safer having their wealth in an ETF rather than having custody of it themselves. Less risk of loss, theft, extortion, ransom etc? Also, I wouldn't be surprised if some people have died over the years and their coins have been lost with them. At least with an ETF, it is a traceable asset.
Yes, security from that standpoint is great, but it doesn't protect from a 6102 attack, but it's a good balance with the 25% left on the local wallet Very true, every day I worry about this if something happens to me and always do a practice exercise regularly with the wife and review all the notes of what to do
I'm sure you follow Lyn Alden as well, so you probably saw this post, but just in case, here she states that a 6102 would be more difficult in this environment.
Call me a helpless degen, but gotten in short (yet again!) @ 51.3K. I only regret that I didn't jump in sooner when it retraced back up to 53K. SL 53.3K