I shorted PUTs into the 2nd day of selling today. Farmed premium on both BTC ETFs and Coinbase itself. Used some of the money to buy depressed securities. Expiration for my contracts won't be due until 2026.
Good Morning (from Asia)!!!! just woke up... Welcome to the long side (?) I spoke with a dude claiming to be chief señor managing director and I asked him what's going on, Bitcoiners are not happy with this price action He told me a bunch of technical stuff (i.e. gbtc redemptions), but bottom line, the NGU tech-machine needs time to get going, asked how long, he said a few weeks, maybe months Everything is still on-schedule for the $1M per bitcoin within 4 months I explained I have a perp futures position that is now at a loss from a m2m profits of over $25k!!!! He simply said, "there will be sacrifices" and I said ok and hung up (NFA) I'll just wait it out and if I add more collateral, it won't be much, maybe another 5k usdt and if it gets liquidated, will look to reenter when NGU machine is properly running
The ETF approvals were not black swans, this was anticipated, and hence there was a lot of pricing in, with expected selling immediately after. Also, educated BTC holders who do their own due diligence mostly don't want an ETF for themselves. They prefer self-custody, so they are not the ones buying it. The people who want the ETFs are the aging boomers, and diversity hires who struggle to understand digital wallets. You can't expect them all to be lining up in advance on day-1 for this. The Bitcoin ETF will catch on and take off like GLD did, though quite possibly much faster. BlackRock has a lot of experience in this. They know what they are doing, I just wish our woke politicians did.
I wasnt a part of it but consensus seems to be that the Gold ETF slumped for a few months before mooning. Would have been nice to have seen a better pop from this but I guess I now assume that much of the BTC for backing was purchased in the months prior(priced in to the run up)and there will be a wait now till they have to re-up. To keep perspective,we are still up 4% for the month and halving 90 days away. I do feel that JA and I jinxed the whole thing,he was cracking beers and I was talking about the 'Golden Summer'! Facepalm.Apologies to all.
Just thinking out loud but do you think one day when a kid asks for a new bike or something,the father will say:"Satoshis dont grow on trees ya know son!"
The GBTC baggage may be with us for a while, 600,000 bitcoins is a lot of bitcoins The GBTC widowmaker trade bankrupted practically all the big players, BlockFi, Genesis, Celsius, 3AC, FTX, Voyager... A good thread below
What doesn't quite add up is the increase in AUM for the new ETFs was greater than the decrease in AUM for GBTC. Why didn't that excess demand positively impact the price of bitcoin?