Is the correction over?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by michaelscott, Mar 20, 2007.

Is the correction over

  1. Yes, its over.

    15 vote(s)
  2. No, more to come.

    21 vote(s)
  1. Im thinking it is. Tommorrow will be pivotal, but I believe the worst is behind us and we can move up from here.

    The reasons I state are the following:

    - double bottom buy signal in almost every chart
    - worst sentiment (per ISEE and put/call ratios) since 2002
    - everyone expected there to be a 10% correction meaning that it would either never get there or blow right through there
    - Presidential election next year, bad for the Republicans if there are two recessions and stock market crashes in one Presidency

    So I say the worst is behind us for this quarter and next. Beyond that, I dont know.
  2. Neet


    Some retracement was to expected but nothing yet fairly significant, not even a 50%.

    Until I see a 61.8% fibs retracement from low to high I'm undecided and not choosing a side. It's still possible to make money using a neutral perspective, in fact, it's the best way and whether it makes the 61.8% retracement or not I prefer to remain in this state.
  3. so the market will go up because the republicans want to?

  4. My theory on the Republicans is simple. If the economy is going into the tank along with the stock market, then the Republicans have *no chance* to make it back into office either in the Congress or the Presidency. Right now, I would say their chances are slim, but not none.

    You can also make an argument for the Congress as well. If there is a recession and stock market panic on their watch, will the Democrats be looked at favorably in the next election?

    Politicians have a lot of influence on the stock market and they can take it up or down through regulation and legislation. There is a lot on the line in the next election and it wouldnt be worth it to have an economy in flames during the elections.

    Bernanke was appointed by Bush and so lets see now what side his bread is buttered on. I think he will make a decision and statement tommorrow that will bode well for the market.
  5. bighog

    bighog Guest


    Come on laddie, give us a break. Ya know ET is indeed a haven for newbies. Hard enough to NOT answer many stupid questions....BUT when it gets laced with moronic opinions like yours and crap from these gurus looking for a flock....WELL it gets to where maybe it is time for some traders to move on from the quackery once and for all.

    I wish you luck, you need lots, here you are on ET telling us your stupid ideas and are just looking for some others to reinforce your brainless thoughts.

    ..gee, it gets hard to open ET and see your kind of dribble over and over.....wise up, puretick, jack quack and others are there to serve you. Sign up for the duration sonny.. :p
  6. The markets are designed to induce the most pain for the most people - I believe we will need to break the lows from 3/5 to shake out the weak longs and bring in new shorts before we can have any chance of a sustainable rally.
  7. Its so nice to meet positive thinking people.

    I wont write out a long fancy response to you. Instead, I will let Ralph from Leading Brands express his thoughts to your words from the following newsletter:

  8. if this correction is indeed over it would have been the least painful in recent history.. how likely is THAT ?

    This is a pullback to resistance and it may take a bit but then the selling will resume.
  9. Bernanke's a tool and does what the bond market tells him. He can't allow for a arbitrage plays in the fed funds market. Secondly, hedge funds tend to play games with the interpretation of fed chairman's statements. So, and overaction or misinterpretation is almost guaranteed.

    Politicians are equialivent to prostitute because wall street lobbyist fund their campaigns. Therefore, all legislation and regulations are based on behind the scene lobbyists whether foreign or domestic. However,"IF" Hillary Clinton is elected. Her ambiguous stance on the war, and her high tax with more Gov. regulation ideology will make her the Bitch of wall street. Arguably, it benefits democrats if the economy and stocks are down going into the election. Because then new fiscal policy is embraced. But, if things are going well economically speaking; "Why fire the manger when the team is in first place". :cool:
  10. I think you got the answer. Lots of shorts who probably entered near the correction bottom are trying to rationalize.

    They're trying to appear like seasoned traders and that anyone in the "know" just knows the permabears are right.

    Sheesh. I'm beginning to think this place is a better contrary indicator than the popular press!

    I'm not a permabull, but so far I've seen nothing but pure (and poor) conjecture by the permashorts. You're right--there's a double bottom and a massive correction is very unlikely in a pre-election year. Even '87 ended with a positive (albeit small) return.

    :D :D
    #10     Mar 20, 2007