Is the Carry-Trade done??

Discussion in 'Trading' started by PohPoh, Jun 7, 2007.

  1. Look at the Yen, flirting with multi year lows...
    Look at the Dollar, firm, but not pulling down the yen too much..
    Look at the bonds, getting smoked...
    Look at the equities, correcting somewhat..
    Look at the interest rate decisons over the last few days (BOE flat, ECB and NZ up, Indonesia and Brazil, down)...

    Is the carry trade over?
    Is it..could it???
  2. dhpar


    not sure I follow your reasonning - but carry trade is really about interest rate differentials - and these are becoming even wider - lol.....
  3. S2007S


    once that unwinds say goodbye to these constant gains on wallstreet.

    The yen carry trade is what pushed most of these indexes to new highs. I mentioned the yen carry trade a couple of months ago. Ill go back and repost it.
  4. S2007S


  5. Carry Trade is alive and well. USDJPY up 0.17%. EURJPY down fractionally. NZD and AUD up nicely.

    Downside in equity markets (so far) hasn't been related to carry trade, unlike May 2006.
  6. S2007S


    So if the yen carry trade is still on, I wonder what will happen when it actually starts to unwind. Maybe a few days like Feb 27th....
  7. you think so from where do you see the reversal coming from the high yileders are doing very well just lookat the aussie job and economic growth numbers spectacular and the Kiwis just raised rates and have currency at 22 yr high
  8. I think the unwinding is beginning. :D
  9. If you are correct, then it's going to get really, really messy in the next few weeks. In every market, across all indicies.
  10. Ramped borrowing costs are going to put serious pressure on debt laden companies.

    Remember, a lot of these companies have floating rates, or rates that are readjusting (b/c they're pegged to currencies), just like ARMs.
    #10     Jun 7, 2007