You are right. I don't follow it either but the masses do. Its simple for them to understand instead of squiggly lines and fibonacci overload etc. The strictest and best definition I know of is just basic-basic .................. lower low or lower high usually can start the ball rolling toward a reversal. A confirmed lower low and lower high is Bread Pudding served on a silver platter Then when that lower Low is taken out, you throw cream and strawberries on the pudding and start devouring SHORT. So that then is a TREND REVERSAL. So, when oh when oh when does this become a BEAR Market? When the low of the first 5-wave move is taken out and the market appears to accelerate down slopewise See QQQ daily. The top red trendline when broken gives good odds of REVERSAL. When the 2nd red trendline is taken out its a BEAR confirmation to 65% odds. But a dramatic change in slope shoots the odds to 100% as in the case of these Qs. See the purple trendline down for the change in slope
Hang in there boyz but be alert. Hell is coming to breakfast. And tuck this ijn the back of your mind because BEAR is playing exactly like the Great Depression Historian outlined eons ago ....................... It came with a surrealistic slowness ... so gradually that on the one hand it was possible to live through a good part of it without realizing that it was happening and on the other hand, it was possible to believe one had experienced and survived it when in fact it had no more than just begun. Hell is coming to breakfast is shown below:
As you appear to know some EWT, here's my "bottom line, thumbnail" on your chart. 1. It's either the start of a bear market and we're currently doing a W4... maybe a W4 of W1 to the downside, and that would argue MUCH, MUCH lower before the final low. 2. It's a big A-B-C, W4 correction to the bull market that began with the Covid low. Too soon to know which... we should all keep both notions in mind for now... But in itself, has not been a (completed) bear market... to be followed by a new bull market. THAT read is wrong, regardless IMV. Of course I could be wrong about both scenarios... but that's how I'm playing it until developments make me I think I understand better. FWIW...
Excellent interpretation IMHO. Thanks Just something to consider since you mentioned the Covid wave. You also mentioned EWT. I don't know whether EWT is sticking to their Wave 5 up scenario from the March 2009 low or whether they have switched to MY preferred call which is that the runup from 2009 is a WAVE (B). Both are good counts and will give similar results so no need to fret. But EWT count would fail to explain how a Wave 4 (Covid wave) could be soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo YUGEly devastating. That is why I call the 2009 bull run like this: March 2009 up to Feb 2020 = Wave A Corona drop into March 23rd 2020 = Wave B Yuge rally from corona low of March 23rd, 2020 to current all time top Jan 3rd 2022 is Wave C. That completes the A-B-C = (B). Dow Jones monthly
Unrelated is the consensus that .............. Elliottwave practitioners do it with Alternates They are the worst market timers in the world They have killed more subscribers than even the American civil war They sure as heck killed all my friends to the poorhouse. But they are all fine people. Love Bob and Steve. Bob puts out some really fine Research which I always love to read. But I run fast when he switches to TIMING. And a final note is that when it comes to TIMING, I'm a bigger bum than he as per my performance in trading the Q here at ET thus far. Billy and Johnny together lost 9.6 million when they were subscribers for 2 years and had to live at the YMCA in Hollywood and I had to feed them weekly and pay the bills for lodging until they recovered mentally, so distraught they were
Agree, it's HUGE... and easy to conclude "bear (possible) market".... but watching it I couldn't eliminate it as a "possible W4 up"... and I still can't. We'll likely know for sure if the ATH is tested/broken.
Yeah and keep this in mind ............ Corona downwave only lasted from Feb 12 to March 23 = 27 trading days
You might like this story... Years ago I committed a computer to a program to do only EW counts. One time I recall it having tried 93,000,000 different counts to come up with a primary and alternate. Overall I remember it picking only TWO swing lows correctly. IOW... very difficult to read EWT on "every wiggle", but I find the BIG counts to be viable, though infrequent.
Precter's crew called that a "big C Wave". Whatever, it doesn't matter now. If the market makes new ATH, that would be a gift to traders... its "5 Waves Up" count from the June low could be the biggest short opportunity in a generation, IMV.