The Primary TREND that began on Nov 22 for Nasdaq and Jan 4 for SPX & Dow ............ is sending a bus to pick me up The driver knows I'm just standing in a doorway just trying to make some sense .........
Sorry Chief, forgot to mention that this Poll cannot be used anyway for contrarian signal because ther is NO extreme reading. The sampling is super small but I have already told you that. The votes are 9 28 11 No x-tremes, so not useful in contrarian analysis.
I can understand a short-term pullback, but to think we will now have a multi-year downtrend? What leads you to this conclusion? You have the opportunity to look back at all those multi-year bear trends and find out why they persisted on the fundamental level. What conditions do we have now that leads you to believe we are in for another multi-year downtrend, starting today? Multi-year drawdowns do NOT occur simply because of levels on a chart. There are fundamental reasons for them.
Oh will you SHUT UP! Where were you for the first half of 2022? Same place as Rickshaw...Cowering in a corner. Only NOW on a 50% retrace do you dare try to peek out from under your rock and declare the all-clear. Assholer!
Thank you for such a sensible question. I don't have a better way to explain it other than what I have outlined in BEAR at 2 degrees of Trend. I see a very big move to correct all of the uptrend from the 1932 low and possibly even earlier than that. This is what I see. So, to put it in the same manner as your underline text above, I see a multi-year drawdown to correct 1932 - 2022. This is why I marked the red dashed lines on the monthly chart to show thru' to the daily timeframe. These levels will be respected on the way down. I might have to make some adjustments over the next several months as it becomes clearer. Main message I can give you is that this is not willy-nilly even though it might appear so to everyone here. This is serious business, my style of business, and if I bet wrong, I lose and lose big.
Colonel, Consider this: The Prodigal son (=you) has returned to the Zero Risk Free Money $$$ mantra Let's bring out our best wine and cheese and celebrate like there is no tomorrow. Why? What's the big deal? The big deal is this: The Prodigal son (EqtTrdr) disappeared 4 trading days before the January 2022 top. Nobody heard from him. The pain and torture must have been so intense that he was gone for months and months and months. Now, one would expect that the pain would have eased off some by June 16th, when the markets made a bottom and the alleged bear rally began. But no, still not a word. The weeks and weeks went by after the June 16 low and the optimism and profligateness climbed and climbed and the goodwill soared but still the Prodigal son did not return to ZERO RISK mantra. So, when did he actually return? Right on the money when the Bear rally hit the 200-day ema and the 61.8% Fib. Coincidence? There is no such thing. It took the entire juice of the bear rally to cure and heal the gaping wound left by the BEAR's drop from January to June. The Prodigal son was devastated beyond belief. The Prodigal son returned like clockwork at the Top of Bear Rally. Give yours truly a few days to confirm this is the top of the bear rally. Thank you
What will be the trigger for Wave 3? How I am approaching this conundrum from the old Russian style Physics problems from way back when they were truly great ............. Dow Jones is moving at 80 mph due north. Which way is the friction?