Is the American Empire on the brink of a swift and total collapse?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by MohdSalleh, Aug 1, 2010.

  1. Niall Ferguson,scholar of empire and professor of history at Harvard says contrary to popular opinion, empires fall swiftly and the US will cut defence spending and withdraw its forces from the world as its deficit rises to insurmountable levels.

    * Niall Ferguson
    * From: The Australian
    * July 29, 2010

    Niall Ferguson is professor of history at Harvard University.

    WE have been raised to think of the historical process as an essentially cyclical one.

    We naturally tend to assume that in our own time, too, history will move cyclically, and slowly.

    Yet what if history is not cyclical and slow-moving but arhythmic, at times almost stationary, but also capable of accelerating suddenly, like a sports car?

    But there comes a moment when complex systems "go critical". A very small trigger can set off a phase transition from a benign equilibrium to a crisis.

    Think of Spain in the 17th century: already by 1543 nearly two-thirds of ordinary revenue was going on interest on the juros, the loans by which the Habsburg monarchy financed itself.

    Or think of France in the 18th century: between 1751 and 1788, the eve of Revolution, interest and amortisation payments rose from just over a quarter of tax revenue to 62 per cent.

    Finally, consider Britain in the 20th century. Its real problems came after 1945, when a substantial proportion of its now immense debt burden was in foreign hands.

    Quietly, discreetly, the Chinese are reducing their exposure to US Treasuries. Perhaps they have noticed what the rest of the world's investors pretend not to see: that the US is on a completely unsustainable fiscal course, with no apparent political means of self-correcting
  2. Sallie, I try to read all of your posts. Sometimes you are spot on (is that English enough for you?). Sometimes you are tottie (I spent more time that I ever wanted to in Southampton, my nights until 3AM in "For Your Eyes Only." No one named Nial can have the least fucking clue about the state of Ameriker. Fergoosen only nails it. Is Amureeka dying? Most certaaanely. Anytime soon? Not until long after I am dead! Do you know how rich we are? I myself have at least twenty pounds of fat stored on me. My money belt with gold and silver weighs at least as much. Not to mention the fucking pistola I wear 24/7 in case I need to blow away dickheads who want Umurika to die! If you think we are going to exit quietly, you are not from fucking here!
  3. Jeff700


    I predict that the final collapse of American Empire will be when majority realize the truth about false flag events and who is behind them.

    Additionally, there are forces working in America that are not American. That don't have American interests at heart, and are not half as smart as they think they are. With both political parties being their bitch.

    I would say who these forces are but I don't want to labeled Anti-Them. :D. Not funny though :(
  4. No doubut you have watched "Inwisible Umpire" and "Coal-Lapse." If only ten parcent of that is twuu, and it's moar dan dat, we are oberdue for a cur-rection. It won't be pretty. Junger poeple than I will macht it happun. I am two alt. But I will have dair backs. Gold will naught save us. Plumbium will. "Plumbium the gem of the ocean."

    "When the people realize they can vote themselves money, it will herald the end of the republic."
  5. Jeff700


    Take cost of war as an example. (additional wars being planned as well)

    Imagine all that money being used to bail what's left of middle class and ban credit cards and other forms of predatory credit. Investing in other forms of energy and once again allowing FREE PRESS. Press that doesn't control and alter information available to public.

    Within 4 years USA would be born again. As a once again beacon of light in the world.

    But it's too late for any of that. :(
  6. Thursday, July 29, 2010
    American Empire On The Brink Of Extinction

    Niall Ferguson, writing in The Australian, believes that the American Empire could be on the brink of extinction. His theory, based on a historical critique of how empires fracture and fall, notes the fiscal instability of the Hapsburg Spanish, Bourbon French, and British Empire prior to their falls.

    Ferguson then notes that the American Empire could be next, not just because of the size of its debt, but because of the size of payments needed to service that debt. He suggests that debt servicing costs, specifically interest payments, could rise above that of defense spending within the next decade.

    And that's where it gets frightening for Ferguson, who notes that those cuts in defense spending would lead to the decline of the U.S. Empire, a withdrawal from portions of the world, and the expansion of China in the Asia-Pacific region.

    "Think of Ottoman Turkey in the 19th century: debt service rose from 17 per cent of revenue in 1868 to 32 per cent in 1871 to 50 per cent in 1877, two years after the great default that ushered in the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire in the Balkans. "

    "The Bourbon monarchy in France passed from triumph to terror with astonishing rapidity. French intervention on the side of the colonial rebels against British rule in North America in the 1770s seemed like a chance for revenge after Great Britain's victory in the Seven Years War a decade earlier, but it served to tip France into a critical state.

    In May 1789, the summoning of the Estates-General, France's long-dormant representative assembly, unleashed a political chain reaction that led to a swift collapse of royal legitimacy in France. Only four years later, in January 1793, Louis XVI was decapitated by guillotine."

    Obama Guillotined??:D
  7. Fuck, I just wish all that money hat bin speant on repareing infarstricture. But you worry too much, this is a self-cur-recting prollum. Jefferson new what we have to dew. Luke op the quote "Every generation..."
  8. Link?
  9. Retief


    "We are indeed, and we are today, the last best hope of man on earth."
    -- Ronald Reagan in 1974.

    The 1970s wasn't one of America's better decades. It was looking pretty grim by 1974. Times have been tough before. America will get though this. Like Reagan always said - keep the faith.
    #10     Aug 1, 2010