Is Technical Analysis a joke??

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Jdesey, Apr 22, 2020.

  1. Big AAPL

    Big AAPL

    TA only works with the BIG PICTURE. That particular picture is only as big as the timeframe you are trading on.
     
    #11     Apr 22, 2020
    Nobert and Genevian Speculator like this.
  2. schizo

    schizo

    Sign up with @dozu888. I think he's giving a special 1-month free subscription. He only asks that you to sell your house (and your wifee and kidz if you have any) and load up on QQQ.

    Good luck!
     
    #12     Apr 22, 2020
  3. snowman80

    snowman80

    you’ve got to use historical price data

    what else you got, son?

    price action is your telescope
     
    #13     Apr 22, 2020
  4. ironchef

    ironchef

    My two cents:

    I used to think using charts (or TA) to trade is like driving using the rearview mirrors. After all, some Nobel economists said that stock price change is stochastic and random.

    At the urging of an ET poster (I am forever in debt to him), I started staring at charts every day, for a few years now. Lo and behold I started to see some tradable patterns. No many but enough to make things very interesting.

    Then I went back and look at stock price distribution. They are almost Normally Distributed but not quite, more like Levy/Laplace, so there must be some predictable elements hiding within the charts. The challenge for us amateur retails: Finding them is not impossible but very very very difficult. :D

    So, back to the question of TA. I think there are some combinations of TA that can give profitable setup but the simple, published, popular, run of the mill TA probably won't work too well.
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2020
    #14     Apr 22, 2020
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  5. Snuskpelle

    Snuskpelle

    TA is basically
    • a bunch of mathematical transforms (commonly very simple ones)
    • taking a price series as an input to these transforms
    • something that sounds cool to uninitiated people (it's "technical" right) and subsequently used by self-proclaimed experts
    First, let's just note that you can input a different series than price with the same transforms...

    So do the values produced by these transforms predict anything, and give you an edge in trading?

    Now, what you have actually discovered, is that edges (alpha) are rare (or some would say non-existent in liquid instruments these days), especially ones hiding in plain sight in commonly used public data absolutely everyone has access to. Moreover, people get addicted to using inappropriate statistical methods attempting to discover edges (because they give promising results, in backtesting that is!) and fool themselves.

    However... as a thought experiment: restrict your context to strongly trending stocks you have researched and believe have sound business plans. Use TA to figure out how long the trend is intact. Suddenly you've removed the need to figure out when to exit your trade entirely and have an additional condition for entering. Tadaa, TA can aid with that.

    So
    • finding an algorithm ("system"/"strategy"/"robot"/"expert advisor") that just takes a bunch of price bars and produces consistent alpha from that in all market regimes - waste of time (as far as I can tell, there are of course claims out there of the contrary)
    • adding someone else's TA to your charts - waste of time
    • figuring out some TA that helps you see you make decisions on your charts - highly individual; subconscious or conscious discretionary filtering can turn that into a winning method, somehow, will be waste of time for many people
    • integrating TA into your decision process to automate parts of it - probably viable
    There is a wide range of opinions on this as you will notice. Mine is just another fairly uninformed one, but with a couple of years down the rabbit hole by now.
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2020
    #15     Apr 22, 2020
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  6. smallfil

    smallfil

    There is such a thing as a failure rate. Thomas Bulkowski, in his Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns analyses the different patterns. You will not win each and every trade that you place so, why do you expect any chart pattern or even support and resistance to hold each time you take a position? This just my 2 cents. If you stick to one or two patterns and study it thoroughly, you probably, will do better. Most retail traders try to be experts in everything. If you master one or two chart patterns, you can be an expert in those chart patterns and use it to trade and make monies off of it.
     
    #16     Apr 22, 2020
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  7. never2old

    never2old

    being old, as in a senior/retired, I have time to reflect, I was to believe TA was essential to investing & trading

    today I figure its all bunk, for the reason it tells me historical base facts.

    today I don't use TA, what the analysts pipe, what the media spew out ... historical information, even 24 hours ago old or futures, doesn't help me with a trade that I make today.

    take the drop in the S&P yesterday, did anyone call the 2.3% rise today - before the fact?
     
    #17     Apr 22, 2020
    Jdesey likes this.
  8. ironchef

    ironchef

    :thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:

    If this is indeed what you do, you belong to the top 1%. :)
     
    #18     Apr 22, 2020
  9. toc

    toc

    Chart patterns work but they also fail. So you got to handle them very carefully.
     
    #19     Apr 22, 2020
  10. never2old

    never2old

    agree 100%
     
    #20     Apr 22, 2020