all news is taken as good news because either economy is better or fed is staying in the game stats mean nothing now. its all based on air but it does not seem to matter. this is coming from a bear who is still scratching his head that revenue declines each quarter because every company is cost cutting better earnings yet every company is waiting for this turn around but nobody is spending to create a turn around. i think the market dips down once all the major financial banks unload there stock to mutual funds that individuals own. it will be the crime of the century unless something major happens that scares the markets taking it down than the fed will just give the financial banks more free money again. i am shocked about the 150 point S&P run too but even scarier its up like 30% in less than 12 months with no revenue growth.
part of this is a weak dollar trade. and dollar/euro looks like 1.35 will be hit before under 1.30. When, and there will be a when, the dollar gets strong, then hopefully this leads stocks lower. and yields are going up, so that is a little flag. and volume was good today but a bearish divergence; however, let's watch volume the next few days. i'm also hoping the top is a process, so more time to sell and get good risk/reward.
Mom and pop investors just discovered the stock market last week after the 1700 point hype on the S&P 500 by the media. When there are enough of them in then the institutional will unload hard and mom and pop will be left with the short end of the stick as usual and another 2 years to recover, if ever. This is the most interesting chart I have seen lately regarding the golden cross divergence. Imo buying OTM puts at this point is a good risk/reward with fixed downside.
Spy will continue to go up. Not fast but steady. At current low volatility level we can expect only shadow pull backs (SPY volatility). Side-way with lightly positive sentiment trading for the next month.
i agree 100% but it seems to be taking awhile for mom and pop to jump in. thank god we have fed ben pushing them out of bond funds and into cash needing yield badly.
SPY is definitely maybe possibly or not due for a pullback based on this brilliant observation from an article I read earlier: "Could this week be the start of a coming correction? My answer is yes. And I wouldn't want to fight the Fed. But my bias is that a significant correction may also well not be becoming."
Another way to look at these patterns is the amount of trading days needed to go from one Higher Low to the next Higher Low. Each Rally/Pullback has taken from 30 to 47 days to complete, and we are now in day 33 of the latest Rally. The pullbacks have also always included a test of Support at the 50 day MA. 132.46 Low to 138.19 Higher Low (30 days) 138.19 Higher Low to 147.29 Higher Low (39 days) 147.29 Higher Low to 152.74 Higher Low (37 days) 152.74 Higher Low to 155.73 Higher Low (47 days) 155.73 Higher Low to ?? Higher Low (33 + ?? more days) [50 day MA currently at 164.96]
[Update] SPY (November 16, 2012 - August 15, 2013) Uptrend: 23 day Rally: 132.46 to 143.16 = +8.08% 8 day Pullback: 143.16 to 138.19 = -3.47% 34 day Rally: 138.19 to 151.80 = +9.85% 6 day Pullback: 151.80 to 147.29 = -2.97% 32 day Rally: 147.29 to 158.87 = +7.86% 6 day Pullback: 158.87 to 152.74 = -3.86% 25 day Rally: 152.74 to 168.18 = +10.11% 23 day Pullback: 168.18 to 155.73 = -7.40% 29 day Rally: 155.73 to 170.97 = +9.79% 9 day Pullback: 170.97 to 166.09 = -2.85%
good to see we got a good sell-off. yield curve steepening (intermediate time frame) and rates going higher. it is interesting gold is going higher, i would have guessed lower. i only sold short today, and actually waiting for a new high before calling a top. might never happen, or might go way higher. who knows. 1400 is big, and that isn't even close. and then 1200. glad we have vol.
Even if this crazy "Melt-up" Uptrend continues, I think a drop to 160 as a Higher Low works fine on this chart. We'll see what happens.