Yeah, well I'm actually not getting sqeezed per se, its more like Ive taken 2 short trades today, and have gotten stopped out on both. First one was at the open given what I mentioned previously. Got stopped out around 11am Then shorted again higher, on the basis of the downward trend line formed by the opening of last friday + 11am on friday + close on Friday. All lower highs. At 11:24am today we made the 4th lower high in line with this trend line, shorted there, only to be stopped out again with the stupid ramp up at 2:30pm. Shame really. Seems I need to stop shorting this market period. Wait until the upward trend line formed by the early March and the early July lows gets broken or something like that... No point fighting it... J
I think you just need to look harder. Either that or tell us when you are going long so we can all then go short. Just kidding. There are plenty companies that are going down (even today). I have short positions in them.
Correct. The larger trend is up, in the time frame you are trading. You are fighting the larger trend and trying to scalp pieces of retracements. Not only is it safer and easier to go with the trend, it's more profitable too. The problem is that you have a biased mindset towards the short-side for whatever reason. Maybe there's a subconscious need to "get back" at the market that has been causing you pain, maybe you are angry about the BS that the manipulators are doing, or something else. Bottom line though: just read the chart and understand that there are some very powerful forces that are interested in sending this thing higher, not lower. It's going to take something bigger than normal market fluctuations to disrupt them and overcome what they are doing. Until that happens, stay long or just wait and don't trade until the rally exhausts itself. One sign would be a breaking of that trendline from March, which still hasn't happened.
Keep in mind that there are a number of divergences happening on the daily time frame right now which could make this S&P rally pretty suspect. There could also be a blow-off top soon, if some shorts get squeezed here. In any case, stop trying to predict the larger trend and just trade intra-day - go with whatever the trend is for that day only. If you had been looking at say the 1/2 hour chart, you would have seen a double bottom forming from that decline which started Sunday night, and once it cleared 1031 a higher high was formed and it was off to the races. Especially since the move was on high volume, it would have been safe to jump on board. Then around 1037.50, we encountered resistance from a market profile perspective, since a lot of volume had traded from 1036 to 1038 on Friday. That would have told you to be cautious about holding a long into that level, because it was likely going to chop around for a while (which it did). Then when it broke out of congestion on increasing volume again past 1040, you knew that they were going to try for Friday's high. Always make sure that your moves are supported by volume, and if volume is high and price is going against you, get out. That's how you have to think - this is a game being played, and the objective of that game is to royally screw you.
The higher this market goes, the more I feel and urge to short it. I need to work on this, it's not getting me anywhere. I aso think making money being short is more fun than being long. Anyone can do that. Lessons learned.
Well, there's another problem. You shouldn't be trading a certain way because it's "fun" or to prove anything to yourself, you should be trading simply to make money and for no other reason. You aren't going to score any style points for trying to do something difficult - it's not the Olympics. The reason 90% of traders fail is because they overestimate their own abilities and try to bite off more than they can chew. It's a very common problem.
Would you be willing to accept that this market can continue to go higher? The nasdaq is up 33% YTD I'd like to gauge the mind and thoughts of my contrarian, i.e. anyone willing to go long from here.
Market was trending higher since this morning, and then was bouncing around 1036 to 1038. Was able to grab 1 point on long side with 1 point stop. I have to say FB123 your information about trend is helping me, I have not had a losing trade since listening to you. Also, have been better at using stops and hopefully setting a daily stop $ amt to stop trading for day if I am not reading market correctly.
Not optimal in this enviorment. Even when they come they are limited in range/points. So targets need to be pulled in and size needs to be reduced when going short.