"Coin-flip guess"? Not at all. I'm presuming Nine Ender got his panties into a wad because of the "double top pattern not COMPLETED yet... so it's wrong to call it a Double top until it is". My comment was that SP 1220 COULD be part of the Double Top... and it's strategically reasonable to "guess" that it is before the Double Top is later considered as completed.... if that is in fact, the resolution. This play was almost a "no brainer"... sell longs into 1220-25 and go short. Stop at what, 1230?
Historically, Sell-offs are always faster and dirty. With the rally being sustained by low volume , sell off was expected to be hard as it is. Double top is just a formation that signals weakness. How weak and how deep this retracement will be. No one can guess. Extreme weakness that we are seeing is similar to when the market was breaking 10K and then it bounced back hard. Unless we cruz through 11K - no one can confirm trend reversal. Wait and watch - Intraday shorts are in Play.
This thread should have made readers alot of $$. is there anyone who wants to share their story of how they traded using the double top formation?
Have you any idea how many much superior trades you could have made if you had even the slightest clue on the overall market direction ? You seem to like trades where you make a very small return trying to dodge a black swan possibility. Go ahead, tell us the money you would have lost if the S&P hit 1230 before expiry. It would have been massive, and as we have seen it was a lot more likely then you seemed aware of. Smart money ? Not a chance. It was a dumb trade whether you understand it or not.
yep, usually people who get caught in a trade going 80 S&P points against them make money in stead of losing money. Trading is that easy for people trading your calls.
Last leg of rally is ON. IPO's coming in eating the cash reserves. DUMB Money - retailers will jump on this move. SHorts are now trapped - since last week. Fundamentals looking better than ever Foreclosures and delinquint mortages are down I am long until we get a tripple digit DOWN DAY. and then start building shorts on weak stocks.