Again, a double top needs time to be confirmed. It is obvious this level could present serious resistance. The correction in 2008 is NOTHING like today's situation at all. My original call was a minor correction to 1150 area and then the market will either range or power up to a higher level ( then 1220 ) sometime by Year End. But here is a more important point. It doesn't matter where the index goes. The best trading is now by sector and/or by individual company. I noted months ago that many stocks were no longer heavily correlated with the indexes. I was laughed at by some idiot but my point has been supported by reality the last few months. Sectors : Financial weak, Technology strong, Commodities undecided ( good fundamentals but prices already ran up )
I think this goes to most of the polls posted in this Trading subforum. Especially those posted every week. It seems as if someone can't decide whether to go long or short on the market unless he sees a majority of the people responded saying one side or the other. Absolutely useless.
Which charts are you using? We may very well be forming a bullish cup and handle pattern on the spy. The dia, yes. Time frames? Btw, I agree, we are at a double top looking at the weekly spy. However there are other fundamentals such as a QE2 weakened dollar driving stock prices up, strong(er) earnings, etc., Plus, a "classic" lazy W bottom formation, which is also bullish. I'm still long, but of course, that could change... I'll say that if we fail at this level to the tune of -700bps...:eek: If we consolidate a little, then continue up with some heavy accumulation, the double top won't be a threat imo...
I guess I should have elaborated. Today around 10.30am started feeling wrong..... Longs weren't doing much and the morning pullback in gold looked real fishy.....yes I had a nice trade going on and that turned into a flat....rather quickly I may add... Thing is, just about everything sold off, TLT got destroyed, gold and silver came in hard..... I have a few longs that still look compelling on the list for tomorrow, shorts aren't appealing yet although more equities start looking like they're rolling over (but we know how that has worked the last two months).....I also have a few shorts that are trending down already and could get even more of a push if we trade lower.... The bottom line is, I have a very short list for tomorrow, with only a few things that still look great, be it short or long.... That's a sign of indecision. Usually after a day like today, it's prudent to start slow and see what happens....I don't know if we're going to go down tomorrow....We may even gap up and make new highs - who knows. What I know though, is that I have a few ideas and will be ready if things line up....If they don't I'm not trading....As simple as that. I don't care about predicting....because it's useless...this poll is useless and is only put up to reinforce the "I told you so" attitude of a few losers who pride themselves in being the stopped clock that's right twice a day..... Let the market tell you where it wants to go and then follow....not the other way around.
i'm watching the FXE that rolled over on lower volume. Watching the 136.50 level for strong support. If we break that and stay below, shorts may start following through, but so far, as expected, we got to that level and we're dancing.... I traded both sides this morning, played the bounce a bit early then made it all back when it happened (was long NTAP).... Definitely hard to have an opinion, but if I was to lean to one side, I'd still be long, and this may very well be a spot to get long......at least the risk reward makes more sense from this level....on a swing trading level that is.
The market is never "wrong", the market is ALWAYS right! It's us (the traders) who are sometimes wrong with our bias regarding direction. The S&P seems to have buyers at every dip, and then breaks to higher highs, which has been consistent since Sept 1st. Until that changes, the longs in the S&P will prevail.
Looking at last few days action, seems like Bulls are tired (despite of todays pullback). Looks like last segmnet of the rally is ON. Lets see how far we go in next two days. BTW: I am still long.