Remember this post you made : Yes, we all understand if you thought the market was a HUGE short at 1104 that you would think its an ENORMOUS short at 1197. This is your nature. ps I'm long special segments of the Canadian market not the overall US market. I believe this mitigates some of the downside risk while participating fully in any upside.
No we won't. We won't even get to any type of new high. And what is your specific strategy to make money from your belief?
The futures got bid down today, and the SPY longs from Wednesday who bought on "pathetic" volume got smoked today. Of course, there are always to sides to every trade. To each his own.
Its a stock picker's market; I like Canadian banks going into earnings late next week. Trading revenues should be up and there is some talk about raising dividends next quarter. Technicals look decent I believe there is some buying the last week or so in this sector. Stocks seem to have built a very strong base just below today's prices. Today the US market was down ( only half a day of trading ) but the Canadian market is flat the last two days. This despite some drop in commodity prices this morning.
You'd have to be more specific on this. Are you saying people will be selling their winners or their losers end of year ? Which sectors are people going to sell then ? If its winners well the market has been pretty flat all year except the last few months. The large winners would likely be in commodities or technology in this time period. My opinion is the EOY selling will only be meaningful if these sectors spike up once more this year then I can see it happening for sure as you suggest.
I was thinking that the markets would go down right around now, but seeing the action these past couple weeks I'm thinking that we will have a rally the next few weeks. Traditionally these months are positive for the stock market. I do expect another significant retracement, but not right for a couple months.