Is price movement really random and unpredictable?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by schizo, Jan 9, 2024.

How accurately can you predict the next bar or candle?

Poll closed Feb 8, 2024.
  1. Usually less than 25% of the time

    23.1%
  2. Between 25% - 50%

    28.2%
  3. Between 50% - 75%

    33.3%
  4. Almost always above 75% of the time

    15.4%
  1. ironchef

    ironchef

    I agree, 1 min is too fast for manual but since I started with it, I need to finish with it before switching.
     
    #361     Feb 9, 2024
  2. Good Morning volpri,

    Thank you for the detailed response. I appreciate it and agree with what you are saying.
     
    #362     Feb 9, 2024
  3. Hello volpri,

    LOL hahahahahh that is true. The market keeps going up. up up up and away

    Like the ES, it moves slow, but it grinds up today no matter what.
     
    #363     Feb 9, 2024
  4. volpri

    volpri

    Today was a SPBL trend. I only had time for 5 trades today. But I will post a chart later explaining them and the SL's etc. Right now have to make a run to town.
     
    #364     Feb 9, 2024
    NoahA likes this.
  5. volpri

    volpri

    well I didn't get a chart posted. will try to post some chart from next weeks trading.. maybe if i have time. Have a good weekend.
     
    #365     Feb 10, 2024
  6. I know that definitely there is a reason for most of the movements, especially the huge ones, but it is impossible to know all the reasons, so we shall say they are random!
     
    #366     Feb 12, 2024
  7. MACD

    MACD

    upload_2024-2-12_6-37-39.png
     
    #367     Feb 12, 2024
    SimpleMeLike likes this.
  8. MACD

    MACD

  9. Yes and no.
    In many cases you can predict future price movement based on technical side and fundamental one. I would say fundamental side matters in 80% of cases, while the rest 20% goes for technical side. This is how market works, this is how price takes a particular direction and keeps with it until there are many buyers or sellers. If the price reverses, then it makes buyers, for example, close their long orders and open short ones, hence volumes increase and here it is - downtrend.
     
    #369     Feb 20, 2024
  10. tuxedo69

    tuxedo69

    Imo, Charts are not random in normal trading conditions, But when you introduce major or outside geopolitical news then for a period the charts become momentarily random and unreadable, but after, then revert back to normal tradeable conditions.

    There is a reason for the waves in the markets, and the candles are painted to produce those waves.
     
    #370     Feb 20, 2024