Is price movement really random and unpredictable?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by schizo, Jan 9, 2024.

How accurately can you predict the next bar or candle?

Poll closed Feb 8, 2024.
  1. Usually less than 25% of the time

    23.1%
  2. Between 25% - 50%

    28.2%
  3. Between 50% - 75%

    33.3%
  4. Almost always above 75% of the time

    15.4%
  1. ironchef

    ironchef

    Yes, where is my certified profit statement from my broker? :p
     
    #321     Feb 7, 2024
    SimpleMeLike likes this.
  2. Hello semperfrosty,

    Yes for certainty. I was in SIM for many years making sure I do not lose all my savings account money.

    I did lose about -$9, 000 when I first started trading and I lost $13,000 trading an algo. Not the algo fault, that damn drawdown push me to my limits.

    That is why I was suggesting to @NoahA, focus on the losing part mentally and physically, cause drawdown and not knowing if the bleeding will ever stop is challenging, atleast for me it was/is.
     
    #322     Feb 7, 2024
    semperfrosty likes this.
  3. ironchef

    ironchef

    Forgot to thank you for the explanation.
     
    #323     Feb 7, 2024
  4. Hello ironchef,

    Well, ironchef, what else makes sense? What other choice does a trader have?

    You only have 4 choices buddy:

    Choice 1 : Click the Buy Button
    Choice 2. Click the Sell Button
    Choice 3. Click the Compile button on the algo code you programmed
    Choice 4. Click the Back test button to see if the algo make money per your liking.

    Hopefully one of those choices make money.

    Sorry, if I keep things so simple.
     
    #324     Feb 7, 2024
    beginner66 likes this.
  5. ironchef

    ironchef

    Mine is simpler:

    Choice 1: Click Buy
    Choice 2: Click Sell

    I don't have any algo, so no Choices 3 & 4, they are NoOp.

    Then I count my losses. Remember, you said I have to learn how to lose money. :banghead:
     
    #325     Feb 7, 2024
    beginner66 and SimpleMeLike like this.
  6. Hello ironchef,

    You are wise man for making your life simple. I do click buy and click sell as well.

    Algo research and development will take you years, and you may still get it wrong. Keep clicking manually
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2024
    #326     Feb 7, 2024
  7. Hello ironchef,

    Correct! This is the last step of the journey, learning how to lose money and click again without altering mental. Learning to make money is easy, anybody can do that. Learning how to lose money physically, mentally, spiritually, normally, repeatable, consistently without sadness is the last step to freedom.

    And we all lose money emotionally differently, so what I have to say about losses may not fit with you.

    You gotta figure it out.
     
    #327     Feb 7, 2024
    beginner66 likes this.
  8. More proof of the determinism of the market. You can see here that to complete the C&H McDonalds would need an earnings miss. Past price not only affects future price, it dictates it. The chart was essentially forecasting this earnings outcome. If you go Hari Seldon deep the chart will forecast every outcome. The Medallion fund I believe tapped into this phenomenon with an advanced form of EW/fractal/ pattern based algorithm.

    Clipboard03.jpg
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2024
    #328     Feb 7, 2024
    schizo likes this.
  9. #329     Feb 7, 2024
    semperfrosty likes this.
  10. volpri

    volpri

    It is a day session chart not a 24 hour chart. The 3:10 is not a.m. but close of previous day session so 3:10 p.m. so that bar is the last 5 minutes of the previous day session.

    The 8:30 a.m. bar is the open of the next day session. That gap up that I labeled leg#1 is what happened in the overnight session before that 8:30 open. That gap can be represented by one big bull bar in terms of function. So I just call it leg one. Hope that explains.
     
    #330     Feb 8, 2024