Is price movement really random and unpredictable?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by schizo, Jan 9, 2024.

How accurately can you predict the next bar or candle?

Poll closed Feb 8, 2024.
  1. Usually less than 25% of the time

    23.1%
  2. Between 25% - 50%

    28.2%
  3. Between 50% - 75%

    33.3%
  4. Almost always above 75% of the time

    15.4%
  1. ironchef

    ironchef

    But then are you still "scalping"?
     
    #291     Feb 7, 2024
  2. Hello ondafringe,

    Good write up and explanation.

    Yes, one loss and it will be a big challenge to recover.
     
    #292     Feb 7, 2024
    ondafringe likes this.
  3. ondafringe

    ondafringe

    IMO, if you're scalping, the chart's time frame, or number of trades per day, is irrelevant. And in 1-tick trading, the more you trade, the more likely you are to lose one. So once you've hit your target for the day... stop trading. Who cares about the label?
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2024
    #293     Feb 7, 2024
    ironchef and SimpleMeLike like this.
  4. You like scalp range? There's some good action and trend after the open
     
    #294     Feb 7, 2024
  5. volpri

    volpri

    See all that noise? Can it be traded? Profitably?

    Or should we sit twiddling our thumbs waiting for that BO to come?

    Why not trade the noise AND the coming BO?

    #3 2-7.png
     
    #295     Feb 7, 2024
  6. ironchef

    ironchef

    Thank you for sharing.

    Like Kenny Roger's song:

    You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em
    Know when to walk away and know when to run
    You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table
    There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealing's done


    Most of us retails don't.

    I think this applies to trend following too. You give ma some ideas to look into.

    Take care.
     
    #296     Feb 7, 2024
  7. volpri

    volpri

    I trade both trends and ranges. By the time I fired up the computer we were well into a developing range. In addition, even after a GAP open one should wait to see if the opposite side succeeds in making that fail and closes the gap. Then look at taking a position depending on what happens to that gap. And after ORBO has been done.
     
    #297     Feb 7, 2024
    doubledoubledoublecup likes this.
  8. ironchef

    ironchef

    In real time in the thick of the battle, it is easy to be wrong, out of sync, e.g. sell @09:35 and SL at a loss? Maybe a wider SL but then I could end up with bigger cum loss at the end of the day?

    It comes down to experience and technique.
     
    #298     Feb 7, 2024
    SimpleMeLike likes this.
  9. NoahA

    NoahA

    I think this is really the key. Once a trader gets half decent at taking the correct trade and at the right time, its knowing what to do if its not working that makes you profitable in the long run or not. Doubling up and reversing is a solid strategy, but once again, you have to know where to do it. My reversals often don't turn out well, but its mostly because the original entry wasn't ideal, and then the move against my position isn't yet a reason to consider a reversal. But you do a very good job of showing how it should be done!
     
    #299     Feb 7, 2024
    volpri, semperfrosty and SimpleMeLike like this.
  10. ironchef

    ironchef

    Me too. :banghead:
     
    #300     Feb 7, 2024
    NoahA likes this.