Is price movement really random and unpredictable?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by schizo, Jan 9, 2024.

How accurately can you predict the next bar or candle?

Poll closed Feb 8, 2024.
  1. Usually less than 25% of the time

    23.1%
  2. Between 25% - 50%

    28.2%
  3. Between 50% - 75%

    33.3%
  4. Almost always above 75% of the time

    15.4%
  1. ironchef

    ironchef

    @schizo, my apology.

    We usurped your thread and go off on a tangent.
     
    #191     Feb 5, 2024
  2. ironchef

    ironchef

    What do you mean by focused on 1 tick? I too used tick by tick as trigger but 1 tick?

    For index like SPY I couldn't follow the ticks. Too fast.
     
    #192     Feb 5, 2024
  3. Yes too fast in many cases that's why we need fast tools ....signaling...and execution
    But there are patterns lending to larger moves and not always short ...

    You found any axioms?
     
    #193     Feb 5, 2024
  4. Hello ironchef,

    You are doing it correct. This is the only way to learn what makes money. Just keep on trying things in SIM.

    It only cost you time, not money. So that is a good thing.
     
    #194     Feb 5, 2024
    beginner66 and ironchef like this.
  5. Hello beginner66,

    You are correct indeed.

    Everyone has to figure out how to get rich by themselves. All this looking for help stuff is a waste of good time.

    The chart, the buy button and sell button is ALL the help I ever needed. And the cost is $0.00.
     
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2024
    #195     Feb 5, 2024
    semperfrosty and beginner66 like this.
  6. ironchef

    ironchef

    I don't use algo to trade, everything is manual.

    I am no expert day trader only have about 6 months of sim and live trades under my belt.

    Basically I trade 1 minute chart and use tick by tick chart to track microstructures and 5 min to track trends.

    Lately, the duration of each trade has gone shorter and I seldom use the 5 minute chart anymore.

    I don't trade with any indicators. I found the standard indicators all lagging and not reliable, often out of sync with the price movement.

    I don't know what you meant by axioms? My triggers are mainly gut feel based on a combination of pattern, frequency, momentum and volume. Every day I start when the market opens and stop when I reach my target profits/losses or when the # of trades reaches a predetermined number. All stop losses are mental but tight.

    Does it work? I am profitable on paper and live but the jury is still out. I don't think gut feel is an edge if I can't quantify.

    Also, 6 months plus a couple of thousand trades are not statistically significant.
     
    #196     Feb 5, 2024
    SimpleMeLike likes this.
  7. yes ironchef it is a bloody tough game...i could have traded earlier but it took me just over 10 years to make some decent $...i am watching Simplemelike he has turned the corner after 8 years so he is doing well and may it continue. A real good eg on here is Speedo..smart fella...trader and life wise and i wish i had his temperament...he has been doing this many years and quite profitable. Look back at his posts...i know a guy who purely looks at the ladder and the games going on there ...and is doing very well..this is beyond my scope and capabilities...but i admire him for it..One has to find something where method suits personality.Keep reading ET and scour for the nuggets...they are out there but at end of the day you have to do the work yourself...for some it becomes obsession like it did for me.Fusion with the object can be dangerous so one has to learn to disidentify with it.Some find it easier than others to do that...anyhow im drifting a bit :)
     
    #197     Feb 5, 2024
    ironchef likes this.
  8. Jzwu2017

    Jzwu2017

    Do you realize being a trend follower you’re predicting the “trend” is continuing? I suggest watching some YouTube videos by Denise Shull. She has a book called “Market Mind Games”.
     
    #198     Feb 6, 2024
    schizo likes this.
  9. schizo

    schizo

    Did you read her book? It's a good book. :thumbsup:
     
    #199     Feb 6, 2024
    Jzwu2017 likes this.
  10. Good Morning ironchef,

    Questions for you please below. Please provide an answer to each question.

    1. Why do you think gut feel is not an edge or reliable way to make alot of money?

    2. Why do you think you need to quantify a way to make money before actually making alot of money?

    3. How do you know you have the right tools and resources to quantify a trading edge to make money before actually making alot of money?

    4. How much time, energy and money do you have to quantify a trading edge to make money before actually making alot of money?

    5. Please provide some specifics on what you mean by quantify? For example, is 1 week of quantification good enough, 2 months, 2 years, 1 day??

    6. How much money does your quantification need to show before you start trading it with real money?

    7. Do you have an example of a quantify trading edge you would like to mimic?

    8. Do you know any trader or institution that has made a lot of money trading a quantifiable trading edge?

    Thank you,
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2024
    #200     Feb 6, 2024
    ironchef likes this.