Is price movement really random and unpredictable?

Thanks.

Lets give him the benefit of the doubt and I hope he would respond because I am more interested in the principles behind the algo (recipe) than the algo itself.

 

Yap. Seems like all roads lead to Rome.

 

Traders, using that term loosely, want it served to them on a silver platter.

Take for instance, a topic started today by someone looking for help on how to use the RSI.

First of all there are prolly as many ways to use it as Baskin-Robbins ice cream flavors, 31 for those who don't know the old slogan.

But the main thing to consider is context.

Say you are a trend trader, then you should look for an oversold condition during a retracement.

Next have a trade setup, such as price taking out a prior higher high.

Maybe have another condition or two besides the RSI squiggly doing this or that. Because there are plenty of times RSI drops below and crossed back above OS (default value usually being 30) and price does nothing, or worse continues to drop. Not "ideal" for a long trade.

Time, price, pattern momentum all need to be considered. Not simply this indicator did that.

BS fibs (or insert any other TA technique to bash) don't work. Duh.

 

I studied the charts @VSTscalper posted. They gave amazingly good results:

1. He made 15 trades on the 10 minute charts.

2. Results showed 259 trades represented about a month's trades.

3. 1059.99% return on capital after 259 trades or ~ 1 month.

As far as I know, this is the best results on ET, >> better than @destriero's legendary returns.

But then I realized they are backtesting runs. We all know how difficult it is to duplicate backtesting results with live trades. Most of the time they do not duplicate at all. However, even if it is only marginally true, he is good. How good, how real? You be the judge.

After staring at the charts for a while, I think I know the general approach. Let me just say it is not fake nor a scam, just that most likely it won't work in live situations.

Why? It is difficult to duplicate in real time when price moves dynamically and the approach requires instant fill at the exact instance or losses could pile up when the trades are out of sync.

 

Exactly! It’s like whenever I am watching the market every one of my prediction is correct but as soon as I start real trading I am losing.

 

The problem is this. When the trade supposedly works, you count up the profits. But when it doesn't work, the platform marks you as getting out at break-even or +1 tick. In real life it never works like this. Look at all your trades. I'm sure most have gone at least a bit into profit, so in fantasy land, you can book that tiny profit or at least not let it turn into a loss.

 

So IOW just another padudu trader.

 

By the way, my comments to your posts assumed you are an amateur retail like me, otherwise, my apology and you can put me on ignore.

In all due respect to @VSTscalper, it is presumptuous for me to discuss or comment on his methodology since he never revealed them. I will let him comment.

But if my guesses are correct, the devil is in the details and using it as a black box won't work.

 

@padutrader is a better day trader than I.

I miss his counsel.

 

I'm retail as well, but smart enough to know that what he shows is fantasy. There is a reason why he is on ET and why he sells algos. Would you waste your time here if you had his results?