Is price movement really random and unpredictable?

Could be …could be…however, I find it a useful tool in my trading. For scalping anyway.

 

Jesus! Just got a head cramp myself.

 

Is price movement really random and unpredictable?

Yes and No, to a certain degree. Which is depending on each ones his skills.

 

Every trader is subject to the Trader's Equation? You mean like gravity?

I know you like to compile stats and make predictions. Do you think the probabilities you assign are more rigorous than Al's 60/40?

 

Yes.

I don't know specifically how Al uses it, nor do I want to know, so I'll skip that video.

My point is simply that at the end of the day/week/year, if I tally up your trades, we will get an average win, an average loss and a win rate. Even if you don't use a stop loss in the markets or even if you don't predict, you will still have a list of trades that are subject to that formula.

And it's good for new traders to understand this equation and what's required of you to have a positive expectancy long term.

Yes, because I think he's pulling them out of his ass.

 

Maybe you should watch the short clip because you seem to be saying the Trader's Equation is the same thing as averages of all your trades completed.

The equation is conventional wisdom and who cares about new traders or not new traders. Everyone has a mind. They should build it and use it for their benefit.

Results are what matters but your method requires a lot more work for essentially the same pulling numbers out of the ass.

 

Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for DEALING WITH OUR IGNORANCE. Outside of textbooks and casinos, probability almost NEVER presents itself as a mathematical problem or a brain teaser. Mother nature does not tell you how many holes there are on the roulette table, nor does she deliver problems in a textbook way (in the real world one has to guess the problem more than the solution). In this book, considering that alternative outcomes could have taken place, that the world could have been different, is the core of probabilistic thinking. (Emphasis mine)

— Nassim Taleb, Fooled by Randomness

 

Yes. And if it's not, I don't want to know.

As for the rest of your post: okay.

 

Very profound.

I, a noise trader, provide price discovery, liquidity and help create the market. Yet I don't get any credits for it?