%% NO, not predict it as you rightly hinted . BUT a good trender like SPY+ you may find better; uptrending SPY closing above 200 day moving average , most likely will offer many profits .So even when wrong- like i thought the last move would take out +slam 200day moving average-it did not. But no problem anyway................................................................................................,
OK, got to accept some markets trend more readily and for longer than others. But within those contexts, surely there isn't a way to predict a trend will soon start, or the next trend will be in the best 10% of the year for that market. In that sense these things are unpredictable. Which makes for one of the hardest rules to follow in trading - if you're a trend-follower (in SPY or whatever), you have to follow all of them.
%% SPY is a good benchmark. I record it+ print plenty of paper charts, rather than trade it much . BUT SPY is up >17% YTD , that tells me, most likely to be a very good year, average SPY, YTD is about 11% or 12%. Plus dividends+ most likely you can find something better. Good SPY volume for summer.; even IF it sells SEPT.......................................................................................
Most of us active traders use price action., however the entry signal you choose to use has far less bearing on your performance than risk/trade mgmt & your mind set. Novice traders obsess over the wrong things, trade identification is majoring in minors.
The best indicator for that, if there is one, would be the simple trend channel break, averaged out over a few different timeframes. No need for complicated formulae based on the numbers of nature.
I would highly recommend that when you study the markets (with whatever approach) stick to highly liquidated, regulated markets. Crypto (unfortunately) is not one of them because they are, in my opinion, fake volumes of algos trading between one another. If you do some research, you would see that just about five exchnages are potentially showing the right sizes. I am not even going to mention lower level coins that are a complete fake. You seem to suggest that trading crypto holds the same principles as traditional and more mature markets. Again, only my opinion, but if you focus on other markets that have a "slower" pace, you could journal it, take corrective actions, and apply risk management that may serve you for the years to come. Also, the cost of execution on Crypto is tough to overcome if you are a short term trader. I hope this helps.
Orbit, if I may offer a suggestion to consider. I don't know what chart environment you are using but try CVB Charts (Constant Volume Bar) charts along with your candlesticks. This gives you the advantage of using volume but you have it imbedded in the bars themselves so it doesn't became an extra distraction. Using them really smooths out the charts because it eliminates those huge news and reaction spikes. RA
Orbit, one more thing. Don't think of what you are trying to achieve with PA trading as predicting so much as reacting. You want to react what is happening on the chart at any given moment to give you the greatest potential for profit until you see a specific reason to react again to either get out or reverse your position.
I remember the joke about Elliot. Man #1 - Do you know how to start a fight? Man #2 - No, how? Man #1 - Walk into an Elliot Wave seminar where they are discussing a chart and ask, "What wave are we on"? and walk out of the room. Immediately you will begin to hear glass break.
It is so funny to read this post because it is extremely accurate. 15 years ago if you told someone that you trade only using price action you were thought to be wearing a tin foil hat and practicing pseudo science.